The ongoing heavy rains in Nairobi and parts of the highlands east of the Rift Valley, including Nyeri, are set to subside by Friday, according to the Kenya Meteorological Service. The rains have been attributed to the presence of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over northern Tanzania and the southern part of Kenya.
Dr. David Gikungu, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Service, confirmed during the 10th National Climate Outlook Forum in Garissa County that the dry spell will resume as the country transitions into the March to May (MAM) long rains season. He stated that while the current heavy rains will ease, certain regions, such as Western Kenya and the Lake Basin, could continue experiencing rainfall as they transition into the next season.
“The MAM 2025 forecast indicates that near to above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, most of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, and parts of the Southeastern lowlands,” Dr. Gikungu noted. However, Nairobi County, the Central Rift Valley, most of the Northwest, and the Coastal region are expected to experience near to below-average rainfall. Additionally, the northeastern parts of Kenya, including Garissa, will likely receive below-average rainfall, raising concerns over water and pasture availability.
Dr. Gikungu urged relevant sectors to advise communities on water and pasture conservation as the season is expected to be drier than usual. He further explained that rainfall distribution across the country will be uneven, with certain regions experiencing prolonged dry spells and occasional storms. The peak of the rainy season is forecasted for April, except for the Coastal Strip, where the highest rainfall is expected in May.
Meanwhile, environmental concerns were raised during the forum, particularly regarding deforestation in Kitui, Tana River, and Garissa counties. Garissa Deputy County Commissioner Sebastian Okiring directed the Kenya Forest Service (KFS) to take action against charcoal burners and traders, citing the devastating impact of deforestation on biodiversity and the ecosystem.
“As you travel from Mwingi towards Garissa, you see countless bags of charcoal at every bus stop. Some of these trees have survived for over 100 years, and we must act to stop their destruction,” Okiring stated.
He also called for peaceful coexistence among communities, urging locals to accommodate pastoralists seeking water and pasture during the dry season to prevent potential conflicts.
With Nairobi’s rains set to decline and dry conditions expected in several regions, conservation efforts and resource management will be crucial in mitigating the adverse effects of the upcoming season.
