November Forecast: Higher Temperatures, Below-Average Rainfall Expected Across Kenya

As Kenya heads into November, the country is forecasted to experience warmer-than-usual temperatures and below-average rainfall in various regions. The Kenya Meteorological Department has released its monthly weather outlook, painting a picture of challenging weather conditions marked by the effects of a warming climate, potential La Niña conditions, and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This combination of climate factors is expected to result in below-average rainfall in parts of the country, with the greatest impact likely in arid and semi-arid regions.

The heightened temperatures are anticipated countrywide, though they are most likely to peak in Central and Eastern Kenya. In these areas, residents should expect noticeably warmer days, potentially challenging agricultural practices, livestock, and water availability.

Expected Conditions Across Regions

Northeast and Coastal Regions

The Northeast and coastal regions are set to receive below-average rainfall, with rain distribution expected to be irregular. The forecast suggests that the rains, usually consistent and critical during the short rains season, will be sparse and poorly distributed. This could impact food production, water resources, and even human-wildlife interactions as animals migrate in search of pasture and water. Dr. David Gikungu, the Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, warns of possible dust storms in some northern areas as a result of the dry conditions.

Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Nairobi

In Nairobi and the Highlands east of the Rift Valley, including parts of the southeastern lowlands and certain areas in the Northeast, the rainfall is projected to range from near to below-average levels. For regions that typically rely on the short rains to boost agriculture, this prediction highlights the need to plan for potential challenges to both crop and livestock production.

Lake Victoria Basin, Central and South Rift Valley, and Northwest

The western parts of Kenya, including the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, and parts of the Central and South Rift Valley, as well as the Northwest, are forecasted to experience near to above-average rainfall. Isolated areas in the Northeast, particularly the western side of Marsabit, are also expected to benefit from increased rainfall. In addition, Kisii, Kisumu, Nandi, Kakamega, and Narok Counties, along with the Mt. Elgon region, are likely to experience thunderstorms, including instances of lightning, calling for extra caution to avoid injuries and damage.

Climatic Influences: La Niña, Negative IOD, and ENSO Neutral Conditions

The forecast notes the influence of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which historically results in less rainfall over Kenya. This condition is further compounded by neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, where Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are near to below average. Dr. Gikungu points out that these conditions are conducive to reduced rainfall in Kenya and that projections indicate weak La Niña conditions may begin in November and continue into early 2025.

Implications for Agriculture and Livestock

The impact of depressed rainfall is expected to be significant in the country’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), particularly in the North East and North West. In these regions, the limited rainfall could lead to lower pasture regeneration, which will in turn reduce livestock productivity. Farmers are likely to experience a challenging season, especially in areas where rainfall is sparse and erratic. The outlook is especially concerning for crop production, as dry spells and minimal rainfall could impair yields in the Central, Eastern, and Coastal regions.

Farmers in these areas are advised to explore options like drought-resistant crops and sustainable farming practices, such as conservation agriculture, to mitigate the effects of water scarcity. Additionally, livestock farmers should consider strategies for supplemental feeding, given the potential shortage of pasture.

Hydropower and Water Levels

The Meteorological Department also raised concerns about water levels in hydroelectric dams. Major river catchment areas located in the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, which supply water for hydroelectric power generation, are expected to receive near to below-average rainfall. Due to the dry conditions in October, water levels in these dams may continue to decrease, potentially affecting electricity generation. Dr. Gikungu stresses the need for close monitoring of these water levels to maintain a stable power supply. Authorities are urged to consider power-saving initiatives and to prepare contingency plans should there be a notable drop in hydroelectric generation capacity.

Human and Wildlife Conflict Concerns

As dry conditions limit water and pasture resources, Kenya could experience an uptick in human-wildlife conflicts. The Eastern region, in particular, may be impacted, with wildlife likely to venture closer to human settlements in search of food and water. Such migrations can lead to interactions between communities and wildlife, creating a potential safety risk and increasing tension over resource use.

Dr. Gikungu suggests that relevant wildlife agencies should closely monitor these areas, taking proactive steps to minimize conflicts. Communities in affected areas are also encouraged to take precautionary measures to protect their crops, livestock, and properties from potential wildlife intrusions.

Recommendations and Preparations

To address the water shortage forecasted for various regions, the Kenya Meteorological Department advises local governments and communities to invest in water harvesting practices. Rainwater collected during any isolated storms can be stored for later use. Setting up household and community-level rainwater collection systems, such as tanks and ponds, can play a significant role in easing water scarcity as the season progresses.

In areas where rainfall is expected to be near to above average, the Department calls for caution, particularly regarding flash floods and lightning in areas like Mt. Elgon, Kisii, Kisumu, and Kakamega. These regions should consider implementing early warning systems, preparing local emergency response teams, and educating communities about lightning safety practices.

Importance of Climate-Resilient Practices

Given the recurring variability in rainfall patterns, Kenya’s agricultural and environmental sectors are increasingly facing unpredictable weather conditions. Farmers, communities, and policy-makers must work toward building climate resilience by adopting water-efficient practices, diversifying crop choices, and integrating early warning systems.

Policy changes supporting sustainable agricultural practices and promoting drought-resistant crops will be crucial in countering the effects of irregular rainfall patterns. Additionally, improved infrastructure for water harvesting and storage could provide a buffer during dry periods, ensuring water availability for both agricultural and household needs.

Final Thoughts: Navigating a Changing Climate

The November forecast underscores the importance of preparedness as Kenya continues to face the challenges posed by climate variability. With the combination of warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average rainfall projected for November, communities, farmers, and government agencies need to be proactive to mitigate the negative impacts of these conditions.

Close monitoring of water resources, adaptation of climate-resilient agricultural practices, and investment in water storage solutions can help Kenya manage the upcoming season. Though challenges are expected, proactive measures can help reduce the adverse effects and support communities and wildlife through another unpredictable weather season.

The Kenya Meteorological Department continues to monitor conditions and will provide updates as the season progresses, allowing for adjustments to plans and practices as needed. For now, communities are urged to heed weather advisories and prepare for the likelihood of a warmer, drier November.