Four weeks after Sheikh Hasina, the ousted Bangladeshi leader, fled her country via helicopter, India finds itself in a diplomatic quagmire. The once-powerful prime minister’s departure and the subsequent chaos have turned into a complex issue for New Delhi, caught between managing regional influence and handling the demands of an emboldened opposition.
Hasina’s 15-year rule in Bangladesh was marked by allegations of human rights abuses and crackdowns on dissent. The student-led uprising that forced her to flee was driven by deep-seated frustrations over her authoritarian governance. The fall of Hasina’s regime has left India grappling with a challenging diplomatic situation.
The interim government in Bangladesh, which took power after Hasina’s flight, is pressing for her return to face trial. The leaders of the student-led revolution are calling for Hasina’s extradition, accusing her of orchestrating violence against protesters. However, sending the 76-year-old back to Bangladesh poses significant risks for India.
India’s reluctance to extradite Hasina is driven by concerns about its regional relationships. The country is engaged in a strategic competition with China across South Asia, where Beijing’s influence is rapidly expanding. By returning Hasina to Bangladesh, India could undermine its standing with other South Asian allies who may perceive this as a betrayal of its commitment to protect regional partners.
Thomas Kean of the International Crisis Group highlights that India’s decision will have broader implications. “India is clearly not going to want to extradite her back to Bangladesh,” he explains. “The message that would send to other leaders in the region who are close to New Delhi would not be a very positive one… that ultimately, India will not protect you.”
The strategic importance of maintaining good relations with Bangladesh was underscored by the recent loss of India’s preferred presidential candidate in the Maldives to a rival who shifted allegiance towards Beijing. Hasina’s ouster has further complicated this dynamic, leaving India without its closest ally in the region.
Despite Modi’s assurances of support for Bangladesh’s new government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, there is growing hostility from those who suffered under Hasina’s rule. The Indian Prime Minister’s emphasis on protecting Bangladesh’s Hindu minority has fueled tensions, especially after attacks on Hindu temples and communities during the upheaval.
Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, a leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), criticizes India’s approach, noting that New Delhi’s backing of Hasina has left it in a difficult position. “The people of Bangladesh want a good relationship with India, but not at the cost of their interests,” Alamgir told AFP. “The attitude of India unfortunately is not conducive to creating confidence.”
The strained atmosphere between the two nations has even extended to natural disaster responses. During the recent floods that devastated both countries, some Bangladeshis accused India of contributing to the disaster’s severity, reflecting the deepening mistrust.
Although Bangladesh has revoked Hasina’s diplomatic passport, preventing her from traveling further, the interim government has not publicly pressured India for her extradition. The bilateral extradition treaty between India and Bangladesh, established in 2013, includes a clause that could potentially refuse extradition for “political” offenses. This provision offers India a legal justification to avoid handing Hasina over.
Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former Indian ambassador to Bangladesh, suggests that maintaining a stable relationship is crucial. “Any mature government will realize that making an issue out of Hasina staying in India is not going to give them any benefits,” Chakravarty said.
As India navigates this diplomatic maze, its response to the Hasina issue will likely influence its regional strategy and relationships. The unfolding situation underscores the delicate balance India must maintain in its pursuit of influence amid the growing presence of rival powers in South Asia.
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