Rainfall is expected to persist in parts of Kenya, including the Highlands both East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley itself, and parts of the Coast, according to a forecast released by the Kenya Meteorological Department (MET). This extended period of rainfall, running from October 8 to October 14, 2022, offers critical insights into Kenya’s evolving weather patterns, particularly as the country navigates increasing climatic variability. While much of the country remains dry and sunny, these regions will experience periodic showers and thunderstorms, indicative of the mixed weather conditions typical of Kenya’s diverse geography.
Regional Rainfall Distribution and Impact
The MET Department’s forecast delineates how rainfall will affect specific regions of the country. For the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley, morning rains are expected in select areas. These will be followed by showers and thunderstorms during the afternoons and nights, with rain occasionally spreading across multiple counties. Key affected counties include Kisii, Nyamira, Nandi, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Busia, Migori, Narok, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans-Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, and West Pokot.
In the North-western regions, specifically Turkana and Samburu counties, the forecast predicts mostly sunny days interspersed with partly cloudy nights, offering a respite from rainfall but signaling the need to prepare for future dry spells. These sunny periods, however, may offer some short-term stability for agricultural activities but do not guarantee long-term relief for drought-prone areas.
The Highlands East of the Rift Valley, encompassing counties such as Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, and Nairobi, will experience intermittent cloudiness, along with light morning rains that will give way to sunny intervals. Afternoon and night showers, though sporadic, are also likely over certain areas, signaling the varied weather that the capital and its surrounding counties will witness during the forecast period.
Northeastern counties, including Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo, will continue to see sunny days and partly cloudy nights, with only the possibility of morning rains and afternoon showers during the second half of the forecast period. This reflects the broader trend of prolonged dry periods and increasing aridification in Kenya’s northeastern region.
Southeastern lowlands, including Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, and Taita-Taveta, along with the inland parts of Tana River County, will largely experience sunny days and partly cloudy nights. However, these areas could experience morning rains and afternoon showers intermittently, highlighting the area’s fluctuating weather pattern, which is essential for local agriculture and water management strategies.
Finally, in the coastal counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, and the coastal parts of Tana River County, morning, afternoon, and night showers are expected over several locations. The persistent rains in these coastal areas may lead to flash floods, presenting a potential challenge for residents and local authorities.
Kenya’s Changing Climatic Patterns
The MET Department’s forecast aligns with broader observations made in the State of the Climate Kenya 2023 report, which highlights significant changes in Kenya’s weather patterns. Over the past few years, the country has seen heightened variability in precipitation, with some regions experiencing intense rainfall and others enduring extended dry spells. These changing conditions have exacerbated challenges related to both flooding and drought, impacting millions of lives, disrupting livelihoods, and stressing key infrastructure.
In 2023, Kenya witnessed above-normal rainfall across parts of the coast, western, and central highlands, and certain regions in the north. However, vast swathes of the country, particularly in the east and northeast, experienced prolonged dry conditions. Notably, localised and widespread flash floods affected many areas, particularly the northeastern counties, coastal regions, and parts of the southeastern lowlands. The impact of this variability is being felt across multiple sectors, with agriculture, health, and infrastructure being among the hardest hit.
Floods and Their Aftermath
Kenya’s experience with flash floods, particularly during the short rains between October and December 2023, has had devastating effects. Floods were reported in 38 counties, resulting in the tragic loss of lives, injuries, and displacements. As families were forced to evacuate, key infrastructure, including roads and bridges, was destroyed, disrupting transport and economic activities across the affected areas. The flooding not only damaged homes and businesses but also led to the loss of over 25,269 acres of farmland and 17,392 livestock deaths, exacerbating food insecurity in an already drought-affected country.
Waterborne diseases such as cholera also emerged as secondary consequences of the floods. Contaminated water sources, compounded by inadequate sanitation facilities, led to outbreaks in multiple counties. The Kenya Meteorological Department’s report emphasizes the health risks associated with flood-prone areas and the need for stronger public health infrastructure to mitigate such risks in the future.
In total, approximately 757,173 people, representing 138,560 households, were directly affected by the floods. Among them, 64,373 households were displaced across 34 counties, including Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Mombasa, and Tana River. The economic and social disruptions caused by these displacements have had far-reaching consequences, particularly in rural communities where agriculture is a primary source of livelihood.
The Path Forward: Managing Climatic Risks
The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in Kenya demand a comprehensive approach to disaster preparedness and climate adaptation. The persistent rainfall in the Rift Valley and Lake Basin regions is a reminder of the urgent need to strengthen early warning systems, build resilient infrastructure, and promote sustainable agricultural practices that can withstand both drought and flooding.
As Kenya continues to face the challenges posed by climatic variability, it is crucial for government agencies, non-governmental organizations, and local communities to collaborate on long-term solutions. One key area of focus should be the development of robust water management systems, including rainwater harvesting and improved irrigation techniques, which can help mitigate the impacts of both drought and flooding. Additionally, efforts to enhance soil conservation and promote climate-resilient crops will be essential in ensuring food security in the face of unpredictable weather patterns.
In urban areas, infrastructure development must account for the increasing likelihood of floods. Improved drainage systems, flood barriers, and disaster response plans will be critical in minimizing the damage caused by extreme rainfall. Furthermore, raising public awareness about the risks associated with climate change and encouraging sustainable practices, such as reducing deforestation and promoting reforestation, will play a key role in protecting the environment and reducing vulnerability to floods and droughts.
Conclusion
The continued rainfall in parts of the Rift Valley, Lake Basin, and coastal regions underscores the pressing need to address Kenya’s evolving climatic challenges. As the country grapples with both floods and droughts, a coordinated response involving all sectors of society is essential to build resilience and protect vulnerable communities from the devastating effects of climate change. While the current forecast provides valuable insight into immediate weather conditions, long-term planning and sustainable practices will be key to mitigating future climatic risks and ensuring a more secure and prosperous future for all Kenyans.
