Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is intensifying his campaign to become the next chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC), with his sights set on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as his final leg in a continent-wide tour. In January, Raila will focus on garnering support from the 16-member states of SADC, a strategic move aimed at consolidating his base ahead of next year’s elections. The campaign comes days after the Mjadala Leadership debate where Raila reiterated his commitment to Africa’s representation on the global stage.
Permanent Seat for Africa at the United Nations Security Council
In the televised debate, Raila emphasized his vision for Africa, pledging to work with leaders across the continent to secure two permanent seats at the United Nations Security Council if elected as the AUC chair. He described this as a matter of fair representation, asserting that Africa, with 55 sovereign nations, currently has no seat on the Security Council—despite Europe having three. Raila underscored the importance of Africa’s voice in global decision-making, highlighting the disparities in representation and power dynamics on the international stage. “It’s not just about having a seat,” Raila said, “but ensuring that it comes with the power to influence decisions, including veto rights.”
Trade Balance and Intra-African Trade Initiatives
Raila’s manifesto for his Africa transformation agenda also touches on economic reform, with a strong focus on enhancing trade balance and promoting intra-African trade. He criticized the underutilization of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which was launched three years ago to boost trade among African countries but has been hampered by non-tariff barriers, varied payment modalities, and differing standards across countries. Raila vowed to address these challenges by fostering greater cooperation among member states, facilitating smoother cross-border trade, and encouraging value addition on raw materials sourced from Africa.
Geopolitical Considerations in the AUC Chair Race
Raila’s bid for the AUC chair is not just a matter of policy and vision; it is also deeply tied to geopolitical considerations. The race will test Kenya’s diplomatic reach and influence as Raila seeks to win the support of at least two-thirds of the 55 African Union member states needing 33 votes to succeed Chad’s Moussa Faki as AUC chair. Several factors are expected to play a role in shaping the vote: the Anglophone-Francophone divide, religion, age, and Western influence, alongside the growing influence of non-Western powers like Russia and China on the continent.
The suspension of several member states, including Sudan, Gabon, and Burkina Faso, due to conflicts and hostile takeovers, has also introduced complexities into the electoral calculus. Raila’s campaign secretariat is acutely aware of these dynamics and is working on multiple fronts to secure votes. His CV has been translated into six languages, underlining the importance of communication in a diverse and multilingual continent. He has also secured endorsements from several African nations, including the DRC, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Nigeria, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi. Other countries like Burundi, Seychelles, South Sudan, Guinea-Bissau, Angola, Algeria, and the Republic of the Congo have also pledged their support, signaling a broad coalition backing his bid.
Raila’s Diplomatic Prowess at Stake
The continental campaign is seen as a referendum on Kenya’s diplomatic prowess, with the Ruto administration going all out to support Raila’s bid. President William Ruto, who has aligned with Raila in a bid to enhance Kenya’s influence within the AU, has reportedly unleashed considerable resources to ensure success. Ruto’s administration is acutely aware that a win for Raila would not only enhance Kenya’s stature on the continent but also provide leverage in negotiations on international issues. As the government mounts a continent-wide campaign, the stakes are high, with the diplomatic outcome likely to influence Kenya’s regional influence and development policies in the coming years.
Challenges Ahead
While Raila’s campaign enjoys broad support, it is not without challenges. The geopolitics of the AU are complex, and Raila will have to navigate through language, cultural, and economic divides to secure the necessary votes. The upcoming campaign in Southern Africa will be crucial in terms of consolidating support and building a coalition that can carry Raila through to the final stages of the AUC chair election. With competition expected from candidates from other regions, Raila’s team will need to employ strategic diplomacy, cross-continental rallies, and persuasive narratives to win over hesitant states.
As Raila prepares for his final push through SADC in January, his team will continue to refine their strategies, focusing on leveraging the collective voice of African nations to achieve a fair representation of the continent on the global stage. The success of his campaign could transform the AU’s influence in global affairs, positioning Africa to have a stronger say in international decision-making processes. For Raila, the AUC chair is not just a political position but a platform to advocate for Africa’s interests on the world stage, ensuring that the continent’s voice is heard and respected in the corridors of power.
