Few individuals can claim the kind of enduring influence Raila Odinga has had on Kenya’s political and public life. This assertion was recently validated by an Infotrak poll conducted between September 27 and 28, 2024, which ranked Odinga as the most influential person in Kenya. The poll, which surveyed 800 respondents across the country, placed the former Prime Minister and African Union (AU) Commission chairmanship candidate ahead of both President William Ruto and the impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Odinga’s influence, according to the poll results, was strongest in his home region of Nyanza, where 42% of respondents rated him as the most influential person. He also garnered substantial support in the Coast and Western regions, with 39% and 34% of respondents respectively naming him the most influential. These results are a testament to his enduring political clout and his ability to shape public discourse, even when not holding an official government position.
The Infotrak Poll: Methodology and Findings
The Infotrak survey was conducted using quantitative interviews via Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI), ensuring a broad and diverse sample of the Kenyan population. The survey had a margin of error of ±3.5% and a confidence level of 95%, making it a statistically reliable reflection of public opinion. Participants were drawn from across Kenya’s eight regions, with the distribution of respondents carefully designed to reflect the demographic and regional diversity of the nation.
According to Infotrak, the term “influential” in the context of the survey refers to individuals whose actions and opinions strongly influence the course of events, shaping people’s views, perceptions, and even behaviors. In this context, Raila Odinga’s long history of political mobilization and his enduring presence on Kenya’s political stage clearly positioned him as the most significant figure in the country’s public life.
Raila Odinga: A Legacy of Influence
Raila Odinga’s position at the top of the Infotrak poll is not surprising given his long and storied political career. Having served as Kenya’s Prime Minister from 2008 to 2013 during the Grand Coalition Government, Odinga has maintained a significant presence in the country’s political scene for decades. Despite not holding an official government post since his tenure as Prime Minister, his influence on public discourse has only grown. This is largely due to his continued involvement in national issues, his ability to mobilize large segments of the electorate, and his role in leading the opposition.
One of the key factors contributing to Odinga’s sustained influence is his deep connection with the electorate. He has managed to retain the loyalty of his supporters, particularly in regions such as Nyanza, the Coast, and Western Kenya. In these areas, Odinga’s approval ratings in the poll were remarkably high, reflecting his ability to maintain a strong base despite the changing political landscape.
Odinga’s political strategies, which often focus on social justice, electoral reform, and the fight against corruption, have resonated with many Kenyans, particularly those in marginalized regions. His repeated calls for electoral transparency and his role in Kenya’s push for constitutional reforms through initiatives such as the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) have solidified his reputation as a champion for the people. This, combined with his ability to engage with different age groups and demographics, has allowed him to maintain his status as a national figure capable of shaping political and public discourse.
President William Ruto: A Close Competitor
While Raila Odinga emerged as the most influential person in Kenya according to the poll, President William Ruto was ranked second, with 7% of respondents naming him as the most influential figure. Ruto’s influence is strongest in Western and Central Kenya, regions that have been political battlegrounds in recent years. As President, Ruto has faced numerous challenges in consolidating his influence, particularly given the political divisions that emerged following the hotly contested 2022 general election.
Ruto’s political journey has been marked by resilience and determination. From his early days as a member of the youth wing of the ruling party in the 1990s, Ruto has risen through the ranks to become one of Kenya’s most prominent political figures. His populist approach and his focus on economic reforms aimed at empowering the “hustler nation” a term he coined to refer to ordinary Kenyans struggling with economic hardships – have garnered him substantial support across different regions. However, the poll suggests that while he holds significant influence, it is not as widespread or deeply rooted as Odinga’s.
Rigathi Gachagua: Battling Controversy and Influence
Ranked third in the Infotrak poll with 6% support, Rigathi Gachagua’s influence, while notable, has been overshadowed by the controversy surrounding his impeachment as Deputy President. Despite this, Gachagua has managed to retain a strong following, particularly in Central and Rift Valley regions. His political base remains loyal, even as his national standing has been impacted by legal and political challenges.
Gachagua’s rise in Kenyan politics was rapid, having only entered the national stage in recent years. His tenure as Deputy President was marked by both support and criticism, particularly concerning his approach to governance and public policy. Nonetheless, his ability to maintain a presence in the political conversation, even after impeachment, underscores his resilience and the loyalty of his supporters.
Babu Owino: A Rising Star
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, who was ranked fourth in the poll with 5% support, is a rising star in Kenya’s political landscape. Known for his fiery rhetoric and his appeal to the youth, Owino has built a reputation as a vocal advocate for the younger generation, particularly in urban areas such as Nairobi. His influence among the youth, particularly in Nairobi and Nyanza, has positioned him as a key player in shaping the future of Kenyan politics.
Owino’s influence is a reflection of the broader generational shift taking place in Kenya, where young leaders are increasingly taking on more significant roles in public life. His ability to engage with urban youth through social media and other platforms has allowed him to build a strong following, particularly among Generation Z and millennials.
The Influence of Generation Z and Activism
The Infotrak poll also highlighted the growing influence of Generation Z in Kenya, with the demographic ranked fifth in the poll, garnering 5% support. This reflects the increasing importance of youth activism and the role of younger generations in shaping Kenya’s political and social landscape. The poll suggests that Generation Z is playing an active role in influencing public opinion and driving social change, particularly through digital platforms and grassroots movements.
Activist Morara Kebaso, who was ranked sixth in the poll with 4% support, further underscores the role of activism in shaping Kenya’s public life. Activists like Kebaso have become key figures in advocating for social justice, human rights, and environmental issues, influencing both policy and public opinion.
Conclusion: A Reflection of Kenya’s Dynamic Political Landscape
The Infotrak poll’s ranking of Raila Odinga as the most influential person in Kenya is a reflection of his enduring legacy and continued ability to shape the country’s political discourse. Despite not holding an official position, Odinga’s influence spans regions and demographics, demonstrating the depth of his connection with the Kenyan public. While figures like President William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua also hold significant sway, Odinga’s long history of political engagement and his role as a champion of the people have solidified his status as a key figure in Kenya’s public life.
As Kenya continues to evolve politically and socially, the influence of emerging leaders such as Babu Owino and activists like Morara Kebaso highlights the dynamic nature of the country’s political landscape. Generation Z’s growing role in shaping public discourse further underscores the importance of youth engagement in Kenya’s future.
