Biden Uncertain if Netanyahu’s Gaza Stance Aims to Influence US Election

President Joe Biden’s relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has entered a delicate phase, as both leaders navigate mounting tensions over the Israel-Gaza conflict while the United States approaches its presidential election. Biden’s candid remarks at a surprise White House press briefing highlighted the growing frustrations between Washington and Tel Aviv, raising questions about the political motivations behind Netanyahu’s decisions and their potential influence on the US election.

As violence continues in Gaza, with Israel pressing forward with military operations and rebuffing efforts to secure a ceasefire, the stakes are high. For Biden, whose administration has invested considerable diplomatic energy in seeking a peaceful resolution, any delay in halting the conflict may have significant political consequences back home. In particular, Democrats are expressing concern that Netanyahu’s actions—or inaction—could undermine Biden’s re-election prospects by further alienating key voter groups, especially Arab-Americans, who have voiced anger at the administration’s support for Israel’s military operations.

Biden’s Frustration

During his White House appearance, Biden was asked whether he believed Netanyahu was intentionally delaying a ceasefire agreement to influence the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election. The president, while initially cautious in his response, did not rule out the possibility, stating, “Whether he’s trying to influence the election, I don’t know – but I’m not counting on that.”

However, Biden’s remarks soon turned into a pointed reminder of his administration’s extensive support for Israel. “No administration has helped Israel more than I have. None, none, none,” he emphasized, underscoring his long-standing relationship with the Israeli government and urging Netanyahu to recognize the magnitude of US aid and diplomatic backing.

These comments come as Biden’s administration faces increasing pressure from various quarters, including within his own party. Some Democratic lawmakers, like Senator Chris Murphy, have openly suggested that Netanyahu’s reluctance to agree to a ceasefire could be politically motivated. Murphy, in a recent interview with CNN, remarked, “I don’t think you have to be a hopeless cynic to read some of Israel’s actions, some of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s actions, as connected to the American election.” Such statements reflect the underlying tension between Biden’s desire to secure a diplomatic breakthrough and Netanyahu’s focus on navigating Israel’s security concerns and internal political dynamics.

Election Concerns

The backdrop of these tensions is the rapidly approaching US presidential election, where Biden’s foreign policy decisions, particularly in the Middle East, could play a decisive role. The escalating violence between Israel and Hamas, coupled with the inability to secure a ceasefire or hostage release deal, has caused Biden’s approval ratings to dip, especially among Arab-American voters. Polls indicate that many within this key demographic feel disillusioned with Biden’s stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict, viewing the administration’s continued military aid to Israel as a betrayal of campaign promises to adopt a more balanced approach in the region.

Vice President Kamala Harris, who is poised to be the Democratic Party’s nominee in place of Biden, faces similar challenges. The ongoing conflict and its human toll, broadcast widely on social media, have led to increased criticism from progressives and minority communities in the US. These critics argue that Biden’s approach, while diplomatically sound in its efforts to mediate a ceasefire, fails to adequately address the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza. As such, the situation risks alienating not only Arab-Americans but also other voter groups who prioritize foreign policy and human rights issues.

Biden’s Diplomatic Push

Since the outset of the conflict, Biden has positioned himself as a mediator, consistently calling for a ceasefire and emphasizing the need for a diplomatic solution. In public statements, the president has hinted several times that a deal between Israel and Hamas is “close” and that his administration has been working tirelessly behind the scenes to broker an agreement. A successful resolution before the election would undoubtedly be a significant political win for Biden and the Democratic Party, as it would demonstrate the president’s ability to navigate complex international crises while safeguarding US interests.

However, despite these efforts, a deal appears increasingly unlikely. Netanyahu has dismissed Washington’s optimistic assessments of a potential ceasefire, stating bluntly that “Hamas is not there with a deal. There’s not a deal in the making, unfortunately.” His comments followed a US official’s suggestion that a ceasefire agreement was 90% complete, illustrating the disconnect between the two nations on the prospects of ending the violence.

For Netanyahu, whose political survival depends on maintaining support from Israel’s security-focused electorate, the calculus is different. His government has remained steadfast in its military objectives, prioritizing the destruction of Hamas’s military infrastructure and the recovery of hostages over diplomatic overtures. The Israeli public, which has faced a barrage of rocket attacks from Gaza, remains supportive of Netanyahu’s hardline approach, even as the international community calls for de-escalation.

The Trump Factor

Complicating the situation is Netanyahu’s past relationship with former US President Donald Trump, who remains the Republican nominee for the 2024 election. Under Trump, US-Israel relations reached new heights, with the former president moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and brokering normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations. Netanyahu and Trump shared a close working relationship, with the Israeli leader often praising Trump’s unequivocal support for Israel’s security concerns.

In contrast, Biden’s tenure has been marked by a more traditional, measured approach to Israel. While the Biden administration has continued to provide military aid and support Israel’s right to defend itself, it has also urged restraint and pushed for renewed peace talks with the Palestinians. This shift in tone, coupled with Biden’s increasing frustration with Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza conflict, has raised questions about whether Netanyahu may prefer a Trump victory in the 2024 election, as it could signal a return to the more favorable policies of the previous administration.

Regional Dynamics

As the Israel-Gaza conflict continues to escalate, regional dynamics have further complicated matters. Israel has expanded its military operations beyond Gaza, launching ground invasions into southern Lebanon and responding to Iranian provocations. The specter of a wider regional conflict looms large, with Israel vowing to retaliate against a recent Iranian ballistic missile attack.

Biden, during his press briefing, expressed concern that Israel could strike Iranian oil fields in retaliation, a move that would have far-reaching consequences for global energy markets. “The Israelis have not concluded what they are going to do in terms of a strike,” Biden said, while cautioning that attacking oil infrastructure could have unintended consequences. “If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields,” he advised, in an attempt to steer Israel away from actions that could destabilize the region further.

The possibility of an Israeli strike on Iranian oil fields has already sent ripples through the global economy. On Thursday, oil prices surged after Biden mentioned that the US was in discussions with Israel about potential strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure. Such an action could trigger a broader conflict, involving not only Israel and Iran but also other regional powers, further complicating Biden’s efforts to secure a peaceful resolution.

Conclusion

The strained relationship between Biden and Netanyahu, exacerbated by the Israel-Gaza conflict and the looming US election, underscores the complexities of US foreign policy in the Middle East. While Biden continues to push for a diplomatic solution, the prospects of securing a ceasefire before the election appear slim. For Netanyahu, the calculus is equally complicated, as he navigates both domestic security concerns and his long-standing ties to the US.

As the conflict drags on, the consequences for Biden’s re-election campaign become increasingly evident. With key voter groups growing disillusioned and international tensions on the rise, the stakes have never been higher for the US president, who must balance his commitment to Israel with the demands of his own electorate.