Tunisia’s President Poised for Re-Election Amid Opposition Crackdown

In Tunisia, a country that once stood as a beacon of hope for democratic transitions in the Arab world, President Kais Saied is poised for re-election in a controversial and widely criticized election. Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab Spring, has witnessed a remarkable political shift under Saied, who is now running for a second term, effectively unopposed.

The election, scheduled for Sunday, features only three candidates: President Saied, Ayachi Zammel, and Zouhair Maghzaoui. However, the political landscape is starkly different from what many hoped for when Saied was first elected in 2019. Today, Saied’s re-election appears inevitable, with one candidate in prison and no meaningful competition remaining.

Tunisia: A Historical Context

Tunisia’s political history is deeply intertwined with its role as the spark for the Arab Spring in late 2010. Following the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, a young fruit seller protesting police corruption and mistreatment, a series of popular uprisings erupted, not only in Tunisia but across North Africa and the Middle East. These protests led to the overthrow of longtime autocrats, with Tunisia being the first and perhaps the most promising success story of these movements.

Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, who had ruled Tunisia for more than two decades, was ousted in early 2011, fleeing to Saudi Arabia amid massive protests. Tunisia embarked on a democratic experiment that was widely celebrated as a model for post-authoritarian governance in the Arab world. The country adopted a new constitution, held free elections, and developed a multi-party political system, creating a sense of optimism for the future.

However, the subsequent years were marked by economic instability, political infighting, and mounting frustrations among Tunisians, particularly the youth. It was against this backdrop that Kais Saied, a constitutional law professor with no previous political experience, emerged as a figure of change in the 2019 presidential election. Saied’s campaign promised to revitalize the economy, curb corruption, and restore the people’s faith in their government. He was seen as an outsider untainted by the traditional political elite, and his legal scholarship and integrity earned him the nickname “the professor.” Saied garnered over 70% of the vote, riding a wave of popular support.

Kais Saied’s Consolidation of Power

While Saied entered office with high expectations, his presidency took a sharp turn in 2021, when he initiated what has been described as a “self-coup.” In July of that year, Saied dismissed the prime minister, suspended parliament, and assumed full executive power, citing the need to break the political deadlock that he argued had paralyzed Tunisia’s institutions. He later extended these powers, rewriting the constitution and reorganizing the political structure to further consolidate his authority.

Saied justified his actions by invoking the country’s economic woes and political dysfunction, claiming that his power grab was necessary to address these urgent problems. He positioned himself as the champion of the marginalized, promising to restore Tunisia to stability and prosperity. Yet, his moves to centralize power have alarmed many Tunisians and international observers, who see a steady erosion of democratic gains made since the 2011 revolution.

The president’s unilateral actions have led to widespread accusations of authoritarianism. In a striking comparison, Tunisia’s ranking in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index has plummeted from 53rd to 82nd under Saied’s rule, reflecting a sharp decline in political freedoms and pluralism. “He has already returned Tunisia to autocracy,” said Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, adding that Saied had “steadily dismantled a decade’s worth of democratic progress.”

The 2024 Presidential Election: A One-Horse Race

The upcoming presidential election is widely regarded as a foregone conclusion. More than a dozen politicians had initially expressed interest in challenging Saied, but Tunisia’s electoral commission approved only two additional candidates: Ayachi Zammel, leader of the small liberal Azimoun party, and Zouhair Maghzaoui, a former lawmaker and erstwhile supporter of Saied. The exclusion of other candidates has raised serious concerns about the fairness and transparency of the election process.

Zammel’s participation in the election is particularly controversial. Just five days before the vote, he was sentenced to 12 years in prison on charges of falsifying voter signatures on his candidacy paperwork. Zammel has denied the charges, and although he remains on the ballot, his imprisonment has cast a shadow over the integrity of the election. His case is emblematic of what rights groups like Amnesty International have described as a “clear pre-election assault on the pillars of human rights.”

New York-based Human Rights Watch similarly reported that the Tunisian authorities had excluded eight other prospective candidates through prosecution and imprisonment. This crackdown on political opposition has led Tunisia’s largest opposition party, Ennahda, to declare that its senior members are being arrested at an unprecedented rate.

Without meaningful competition, Saied’s re-election appears all but guaranteed. “He is the only viable candidate,” said Yerkes. “He has manipulated the political and legal situation to such an extent that there is no contest.” There have been no campaign rallies, public debates, or robust discussions of policy during the election period. Instead, nearly all the campaign posters in the streets of Tunis feature Saied, underscoring the lack of competition.

Public Response: Protests and Disillusionment

As the election approaches, protests have erupted in the capital, Tunis, with demonstrators calling for free and fair elections and denouncing Saied’s authoritarian rule. Many Tunisians, particularly the younger generations who once supported Saied’s rise to power, now view him as a leader who has betrayed the ideals of the revolution. Economic conditions have worsened since 2019, with high inflation, unemployment, and a rising cost of living placing immense pressure on ordinary citizens.

Saied’s critics argue that his administration has failed to address these core issues. While he initially promised a “new Tunisia” and spoke of empowering the people with unspecified “tools,” these promises have largely gone unfulfilled. Instead, Saied’s focus has been on consolidating power, cracking down on dissent, and sidelining political opponents.

Tunisia’s economic woes have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, global inflation, and the war in Ukraine, which has disrupted food supply chains and caused a spike in energy prices. The country’s political instability has made it difficult for Tunisia to secure much-needed international financial support, further deepening the economic crisis.

The International Perspective

International organizations and foreign governments have expressed growing concern over the state of democracy in Tunisia. Amnesty International’s Secretary-General, Agnès Callamard, stated that the Tunisian authorities were engaging in a “pre-election assault” on human rights, pointing to the widespread arrests of opposition figures and restrictions on political participation. The European Union, which has long supported Tunisia’s democratic transition, has also raised alarm over Saied’s authoritarian drift.

At the same time, some international observers have been reluctant to intervene too directly in Tunisia’s internal affairs, given the country’s strategic importance in North Africa. Tunisia has been a key partner in European efforts to combat irregular migration across the Mediterranean, and its political stability is seen as critical for maintaining security in the region.

Saied’s Future and Tunisia’s Path Forward

As Tunisia’s presidential election approaches, it is clear that Kais Saied will win another term in office, but at what cost to the country’s fledgling democracy? Saied’s rule has been marked by a return to autocracy, the suppression of political opposition, and the erosion of fundamental freedoms.

The protests in Tunis and the calls for free and fair elections signal that many Tunisians are unwilling to accept the current trajectory of their country. While Saied continues to wield significant power, the longer-term future of Tunisia’s political system remains uncertain. The country faces deep economic challenges, a divided political landscape, and an increasingly disillusioned population.

For many, Tunisia’s once-promising experiment in democracy now hangs in the balance, and the outcome of this election may determine whether the country can recover its democratic momentum or whether it will continue down the path of authoritarian rule. In a country that was once a model for post-revolutionary success, the stakes for Tunisia’s future could not be higher.