Kenya Braces for Poor Short Rains and a Hot, Dry Start to 2025

As Kenya approaches the end of 2024, meteorologists are predicting a period of limited rainfall, set to affect large swathes of the country from November through January, followed by an unusually hot and dry January. David Gikungu, director of Kenya’s Meteorological Department, explained that the delayed rains resulting from a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and weak La Niña conditions are anticipated to be below-average for many regions. This forecast has sparked concerns about food security, water availability, and the general well-being of communities reliant on rain-fed agriculture.

This article delves into the causes behind Kenya’s poor short-rains forecast, the regions most impacted, potential consequences, and strategies the government and communities can employ to mitigate the adverse effects of this climatic downturn.

1. Causes of the Delayed and Depressed Rainfall

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and weak La Niña conditions are two key factors influencing the current forecast.

• Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A negative IOD occurs when the waters near East Africa in the Indian Ocean are colder than average. This creates a weather pattern that tends to suppress rainfall in Eastern Africa, including Kenya, while increasing rainfall in other regions like Australia. The delayed onset of the rains in Kenya is largely attributed to this negative IOD phase, which has been developing over recent weeks.
• La Niña Conditions: La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and is often associated with dry conditions in Eastern Africa. Historically, La Niña has led to drought in Kenya and other East African countries. Although current forecasts suggest a weak La Niña, its effects are likely to compound those of the negative IOD, resulting in below-average rainfall in Kenya during the critical short-rains season.

2. Regional Impacts of Below-Average Rainfall

Rainfall patterns will vary across Kenya, with some regions faring better than others:

• Coast, Northeastern, Eastern, and Mt Kenya Regions: These areas are expected to receive significantly depressed rainfall, marking a dry season compared to typical short-rain periods. Lower rainfall could have a profound impact on crop yields, especially in counties that rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture. For livestock-dependent communities in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), the lack of rain threatens pasture availability and water sources, leading to potential livestock losses and food shortages.
• Lake Victoria Basin and Rift Valley Highlands: In contrast, areas around the Lake Victoria basin, parts of the highlands west of the Rift Valley, and northern sections of Turkana County are likely to experience near-average or even above-average rainfall. Counties such as Trans Nzoia, Kericho, West Pokot, Bomet, and Uasin Gishu may have better-than-average conditions for crop cultivation, potentially offsetting some losses in other regions. This distribution may lead to an imbalanced agricultural output across the country.

3. Consequences for Agriculture and Food Security

The timing and amount of rainfall during Kenya’s short-rains season are critical to agricultural productivity. With the delayed and below-average rainfall forecast, the country’s staple crops, including maize, beans, and vegetables, face potential production declines.

• Reduced Crop Yields: Small-scale farmers who rely on seasonal rains to sustain their crops could see lower yields, affecting both household income and food availability. As the main source of food for the country, any reductions in local agricultural output could drive up food prices and increase reliance on imports.
• Rising Food Prices and Hunger Risk: A recent United Nations report has already flagged Kenya as a country at risk of severe hunger by early 2025. Should the rains fail as predicted, food scarcity could intensify, potentially impacting millions of Kenyans, especially vulnerable groups like low-income households and those in ASAL areas. Rising food prices are expected to worsen food insecurity, heightening the risk of malnutrition and related health issues.
• Impact on Livestock: Livestock-dependent communities, particularly in northern Kenya, are likely to suffer as pasture and water sources dwindle. The predicted hot and dry January will exacerbate the situation, making it difficult for herders to sustain their livestock and further compromising household food security.

4. Water Resources and Environmental Concerns

Reduced rainfall will have a direct impact on Kenya’s already strained water resources. Rivers, lakes, and reservoirs rely heavily on the short rains to replenish, and insufficient rain can lead to water shortages that affect both domestic and agricultural use. With warmer-than-average temperatures forecasted, evaporation rates will be higher, further reducing available water.

• Implications for Hydropower: Kenya relies on hydropower for a significant portion of its electricity supply. Lower water levels in key reservoirs could disrupt power generation, leading to potential power shortages and higher energy costs as the country turns to alternative sources.
• Soil Degradation and Deforestation: Poor rainfall and high temperatures contribute to soil degradation and increase the risk of wildfires, especially in forested regions. With lower vegetation cover, soils are more susceptible to erosion, further degrading the land and reducing its productivity in the long term.

5. Strategies for Mitigating the Impacts of Poor Rainfall

While the weather forecast poses significant challenges, there are measures the government, communities, and individuals can take to mitigate its effects:

• Early Preparation and Resource Allocation: Government agencies and non-governmental organizations should act swiftly to allocate resources to the most affected areas, particularly by distributing food, water, and essential supplies. Planning for emergency interventions can prevent food insecurity from escalating into a full-blown crisis.
• Promotion of Drought-Resilient Crops: Farmers can be encouraged to adopt drought-tolerant crop varieties that require less water and can better withstand periods of low rainfall. Agricultural extension services and seed distributors should prioritize these varieties in regions expected to receive below-average rainfall.
• Rainwater Harvesting and Conservation: Water harvesting technologies, such as the construction of water pans and small dams, can help communities store water for agricultural and domestic use. Farmers and households can also practice soil moisture conservation methods like mulching, which reduces evaporation and helps retain soil moisture.
• Diversifying Livelihoods: For communities in ASAL areas, diversifying income sources can help reduce dependency on agriculture. Investments in non-agricultural livelihoods, such as small-scale trade or skilled labor, can provide a safety net in times of drought.
• Climate-Adapted Livestock Management: Pastoralist communities can adopt rotational grazing to manage limited pasture resources efficiently. In addition, providing fodder and water points along migration routes can help prevent livestock losses.

6. Long-Term Policy and Community-Based Solutions

Kenya’s climate resilience requires sustained efforts to address the underlying vulnerabilities that make communities susceptible to adverse weather conditions. Policy interventions aimed at climate adaptation can significantly enhance the country’s capacity to withstand droughts and erratic rainfall.

• Strengthening Disaster Preparedness and Early Warning Systems: Improved forecasting and early warning systems can provide communities with timely information on impending weather patterns, allowing them to plan accordingly. Training communities on interpreting these forecasts will enable them to respond proactively to weather alerts.
• Investment in Irrigation Infrastructure: Expanding irrigation infrastructure in areas where rainfall is becoming increasingly unpredictable can provide a stable water supply for agricultural purposes. Irrigated farming allows for continuous food production, even during dry spells.
• Community Education and Capacity Building: Empowering communities with climate-smart agricultural practices and sustainable water management techniques can reduce their vulnerability to droughts. Local training on managing water resources, conserving soil, and adopting resilient crops can improve long-term resilience.

7. Conclusion

Kenya is facing a critical juncture in its climate journey as it braces for poor short rains and a challenging start to 2025. While the weather patterns resulting from the negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña conditions present formidable challenges, there is an opportunity to enhance resilience through early preparation, adaptive practices, and strategic policy implementation.

The country’s experience with drought underscores the urgency of addressing climate change and its impacts. Kenya’s government, communities, and international partners must continue to work together to ensure that vulnerable populations have the resources and support necessary to weather these conditions and build a future resilient to climate variability.