The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has had a devastating impact on the country’s agricultural sector, with Russia’s attacks on infrastructure such as ports and grain-carrying vessels exacerbating the crisis. These attacks have targeted key agricultural exports, including vegetable oil, corn, and grain, which are essential to global food security. Ukraine’s agricultural sector, which has long been a cornerstone of its economy, has faced significant setbacks due to the war, with estimates of damages and losses running into billions of dollars. Despite these challenges, Ukraine’s agriculture remains a critical component of its economy, contributing significantly to its GDP and export revenue.
Russia’s strategy of targeting Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure is part of a broader effort to undermine Ukraine’s role in global food markets and increase Russia’s influence over countries dependent on Ukrainian grain and oilseeds. Since the onset of the war, Russia has sought to reduce the reliance of food-importing nations on Ukrainian exports, positioning itself as a key supplier of agricultural products, particularly to regions in need, such as sub-Saharan Africa. By attacking Ukrainian ports and disrupting grain exports, Russia has sought to create opportunities for its own agricultural trade to fill the gap, particularly with countries that have been made more food-insecure due to the conflict.
The consequences of these attacks are far-reaching. Ukraine’s grain exports, which were once a significant source of revenue, have sharply declined, particularly to regions like sub-Saharan Africa. In 2021, Ukraine exported around 11 percent of its wheat to this region, but by 2024, that figure had fallen to less than 1 percent. Meanwhile, Russia has increased its wheat exports to sub-Saharan Africa, delivering millions of tons of wheat to countries like Burkina Faso, Mali, and Somalia, and offering free grain to nations aligned with Moscow. This shift in agricultural trade has further deepened Ukraine’s economic struggles and has allowed Russia to expand its geopolitical influence through food exports.
For Ukraine, rebuilding its agricultural sector will require significant investment and support from the international community. The agriculture sector remains a vital part of the Ukrainian economy, and it is essential for Ukraine’s recovery and long-term stability. In addition to on-farm investments, such as the provision of agricultural equipment and support for demining operations, Ukraine will need enhanced protection of its ports to ensure the safe export of goods. A key part of this will be securing a mutual security guarantee for free commercial trade through the Black Sea, which would allow Ukraine to fully utilize its export capacity without the threat of interference from Russia.
The international community must also support Ukraine in rebuilding its agricultural infrastructure. This includes the reconstruction of damaged facilities, machinery, and equipment, as well as investments in agricultural public institutions to support policymaking and provide services to farmers. These efforts should be aligned with Ukraine’s long-term goal of European Union accession, ensuring that the agricultural sector is prepared for integration into EU markets. Additionally, continued support for demining operations will be crucial for the safe use of farmland and for boosting Ukraine’s agricultural production in the near term.
Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian agriculture are not only a military tactic but also part of a broader economic strategy. By disrupting Ukraine’s agricultural exports, Russia is attempting to weaken Ukraine’s economy and increase its own influence over global food markets. For Ukraine, the recovery of its agricultural sector will be a critical part of its post-war reconstruction, requiring both immediate support for defense and long-term investments in rebuilding its agricultural infrastructure. A comprehensive approach to securing Ukraine’s agricultural future will be essential for the country’s economic recovery and its ability to regain its position as a major player in global food markets.
