President Joe Biden has approved Ukraine’s use of long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) on Russian territory. This decision, coming two months before Biden’s departure from the White House, signals escalating stakes in the 1,000-day-long Ukraine-Russia conflict. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has welcomed the move, describing the missiles as “speaking for themselves,” Russia has issued a stern warning, vowing “appropriate and tangible” retaliation.
A Turning Point in the Conflict
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Western allies have cautiously supplied Kyiv with advanced weaponry, including French and British Storm Shadow missiles. However, they had restricted Ukraine from striking within Russian borders. Biden’s decision to lift this limitation marks a pivotal moment in the war, emphasizing the US’s commitment to countering Russian aggression while simultaneously increasing the risk of direct confrontation between global superpowers.
US officials have justified the move as a necessary response to Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, including devastating strikes on the power grid that have caused widespread blackouts and civilian casualties. Over the weekend, Russian aerial assaults killed dozens, including a strike on Odesa on Monday that left ten dead and nearly 50 injured.
Russia, however, perceives the missile approval as a provocation. In September, President Vladimir Putin warned that the deployment of such weapons would signify NATO’s direct involvement in the conflict. His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, accused the US of “adding oil to the fire,” further heightening fears of escalation.
North Korean Troops in Kursk
The conflict’s complexity has deepened with reports of over 10,000 North Korean troops arriving in Russia’s Kursk region to bolster Putin’s forces. Unconfirmed intelligence suggests Pyongyang might send as many as 100,000 soldiers, along with artillery and other military support. This alliance underscores Russia’s growing reliance on unconventional partnerships as Western sanctions take their toll.
Ukraine may deploy the newly authorized ATACMS in Kursk, signaling defiance against the North Korean-Russian coalition. Analysts speculate that the US may have attached conditions to the missile use, aiming to pressure Pyongyang to withdraw its support for Moscow.
Global Reactions
The Biden administration’s decision has been met with mixed reactions internationally. French President Emmanuel Macron called the move “a totally good step,” potentially paving the way for France and the UK to allow Kyiv to use their Storm Shadow missiles against Russia. However, neither Macron nor UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has publicly committed to following the US lead.
China’s President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, has urged global leaders to “cool the Ukraine crisis” and pursue diplomatic resolutions. Beijing, a key ally of Russia, has maintained a neutral stance, repeatedly denying allegations of supplying Moscow with weapons. China’s growing influence in Russia’s economic and strategic affairs underscores its vital role in shaping the conflict’s trajectory.
The Trump Factor
President-elect Donald Trump’s silence on Biden’s decision adds another layer of uncertainty. Trump, who won the US election on November 5 and is set to assume office on January 20, has promised to end foreign wars and resolve the Ukraine crisis within 24 hours. Critics, however, question the feasibility of his claims, especially given the deep-seated complexities of the conflict.
The Path Ahead
As the war reaches its 1,000th day, Biden’s missile approval underscores the West’s determination to stand firm against Russia while signaling to Putin that a military victory is unattainable. However, the risks of escalation loom large, with North Korea’s involvement and Russia’s potential retaliation intensifying global tensions.
For Ukraine, the ATACMS represent a critical strategic advantage, but their deployment carries the weight of unprecedented geopolitical consequences. With a new US administration incoming, the world waits to see whether Trump will uphold Biden’s policy or chart a new course in the fraught Ukraine-Russia war.
