President William Ruto is implementing a multi-faceted strategy aimed at consolidating his hold on key political territories: Nyanza, traditionally Raila Odinga’s stronghold, and Mt Kenya, which has formed the backbone of his political support. Following the recent impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Ruto has focused on redefining alliances and strengthening his influence in both the heartland of his supporters and the areas where he performed poorly in the last election.
1. The Political Landscape and Nyanza Factor
For decades, Raila Odinga has commanded a solid base in Nyanza, along with significant sway in the Coast, Western, Nairobi, and parts of North Eastern Kenya. His influence in these regions has been nearly unassailable, leaving little room for competitors to penetrate. In the 2022 presidential race, Ruto faced a clear deficit in these areas, as the opposition rallied strongly behind Raila.
However, recent developments suggest that Raila may not be in the running for the 2027 presidency, as he appears to be considering a prestigious role within the African Union. His potential exit from the local political stage opens a unique window for Ruto, who is now looking to capitalize on this shift by warming relations with Nyanza leaders and gradually positioning himself as the region’s new political ally. This strategy was prominently showcased on a recent Sunday when Ruto attended a church service in Uasin Gishu, flanked by prominent Nyanza figures like Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma and Migori Senator Eddy Oketch, both considered close allies of Raila.
Kaluma’s statements at the service were particularly telling. Emphasizing unity, he introduced himself and his colleagues as MPs supporting a “broad-based government,” declaring ODM’s commitment to Ruto’s administration. This symbolic gesture, bridging the opposition and the ruling coalition, serves as a strong indicator of Ruto’s efforts to bridge the political divide. Kaluma’s reference to walking from Kisumu to Moiben symbolized the distance Nyanza is willing to bridge in support of Ruto’s agenda, further solidifying the narrative of a united Kenya under the President’s leadership.
2. Retaining Mt Kenya Amidst Gachagua’s Impeachment Fallout
While Ruto courts Nyanza, he is simultaneously working to maintain his foothold in Mt Kenya. The region played a critical role in his election victory, but recent events have led to rising tensions. The impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua, a key Mt Kenya political figure, ignited widespread concern and discontent among his supporters in the region. Gachagua himself has accused Ruto of orchestrating his removal, a move that many viewed as a betrayal of Mt Kenya’s role in elevating Ruto to the presidency.
Despite the unease, Ruto remains committed to reassuring his Mt Kenya supporters of his unwavering loyalty to them. The President’s nomination of Interior CS Kithure Kindiki, who also hails from Mt Kenya, as Gachagua’s replacement signals his intention to keep the region well represented in the upper echelons of government. This decision was further reinforced by the vocal support of MPs Mathenge (Nyeri Town), Kawanjiku (Kiambaa), and Ruku (Mbeere North), who accompanied Ruto to the Uasin Gishu event. Their presence signaled the resilience of Mt Kenya’s support for Ruto despite Gachagua’s impeachment, affirming that the majority of the region remains loyal to the President’s administration.
Mathenge, a vocal supporter of Ruto, reiterated Mt Kenya’s loyalty to Ruto’s administration, emphasizing that their faith in him had not waned. This sentiment was echoed by other Mt Kenya MPs, who vowed to stand by Ruto, urging the region to focus on the broader goals of the administration rather than on individual political figures.
3. Uniting the Country through Strategic Alliance-Building
Ruto’s strategy transcends traditional political alliances, focusing instead on a broader, pan-Kenyan identity that seeks to integrate previously opposing regions under his leadership. This is evident in his collaboration with former opposition figures and his willingness to cross into political terrains previously considered hostile. In this new approach, Ruto envisions a government that transcends regional divides, ushering in an era where political competition yields to national unity.
Migori Senator Eddy Oketch’s remarks resonated with this vision of unity, highlighting the significance of making tough political decisions for the sake of national cohesion. Oketch praised Ruto’s capacity for making “the hardest decisions in life,” implying that Gachagua’s impeachment was not merely a political maneuver but a deliberate attempt to recalibrate the nation’s power structure in a way that fosters unity.
This vision of unity was further emphasized by Kaluma, who implored Ruto to utilize his authority to lead the country toward peace and progress. Kaluma’s comments about “walking from Kisumu to Moiben” underscored a metaphorical journey of reconciliation, symbolizing the potential for Nyanza to embrace Ruto’s administration fully.
4. The Role of ODM in the Ruto Administration
One of the most intriguing aspects of Ruto’s current strategy is the apparent integration of ODM, Raila’s party, into his administration. By including ODM figures in his agenda, Ruto is signaling an unprecedented alliance that could shift the political balance in his favor. Kaluma’s affirmation of ODM’s role in “helping the President anchor his agenda” positions ODM as a significant stakeholder within the government, extending the party’s influence beyond its traditional opposition role.
This inclusion of ODM not only strengthens Ruto’s political base but also serves as a signal to other regions that his administration is inclusive and non-partisan. For ODM, the alliance offers an opportunity to contribute actively to governance rather than remain sidelined in opposition, effectively blurring the lines between ruling and opposition factions.
5. Potential Challenges to Ruto’s Strategy
While Ruto’s alliance-building efforts offer significant political benefits, they also come with challenges. The impeachment of Gachagua has already stirred discontent within Mt Kenya, a region that has traditionally placed high value on loyalty to its leaders. If the perception that Ruto betrayed Mt Kenya persists, it could erode the support he has worked so hard to maintain.
Another challenge lies in winning over Nyanza, where Raila Odinga’s legacy remains powerful. Despite Raila’s potential shift to a continental role, his influence will likely continue to shape political allegiances. Ruto will need to tread carefully to ensure that his overtures do not come across as opportunistic but rather as genuine efforts to foster national unity.
The success of Ruto’s strategy will also depend on his ability to balance the demands of various regions without alienating his core support base. In particular, Ruto must reassure Mt Kenya that his alliance with Nyanza and other opposition strongholds will not come at their expense.
6. Outlook: A New Political Era?
Ruto’s ambitious outreach to previously uncharted political territories signals the dawn of a new era in Kenyan politics, one in which alliances may shift, and regional allegiances are less rigid. If successful, this approach could redefine Kenyan politics, fostering a sense of unity and inclusivity. As Ruto moves toward the 2027 election, his ability to maintain the delicate balance between Nyanza and Mt Kenya will be critical to his re-election bid.
By consolidating ODM figures and Mt Kenya loyalists into a “broad-based government,” Ruto is setting the stage for an unprecedented alliance that could reshape the political landscape. With Raila likely stepping back, Ruto’s focus will be on proving that his administration can deliver development and unity across all regions, creating a government that reflects the diversity and resilience of the Kenyan people.
In the coming months, Kenyans will be watching closely as Ruto continues to build bridges and forge alliances. Whether this strategy will translate into lasting unity or political discord remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: Ruto’s sights are firmly set on a second term, and he is willing to recalibrate Kenya’s political landscape to achieve it.
