Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) made a strong statement on Wednesday, September 18, 2024, reaffirming that the kingdom would not establish formal diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is created. His remarks, delivered during the opening session of the advisory Shura Council, directly oppose ongoing US-led efforts to broker normalization deals between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and emphasize Riyadh’s steadfast support for Palestinian self-determination.
The Crown Prince declared, “We renew the kingdom’s rejection and strong condemnation of the crimes of the Israeli occupation authority against the Palestinian people.” He emphasized that Saudi Arabia remains committed to the creation of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, reiterating that this condition is a non-negotiable prerequisite for any normalization of ties with Israel.
Reaffirming Longstanding Saudi Policy
Prince Mohammed’s statement comes at a crucial time, especially as the international community, led by the United States, has been pushing for increased diplomatic cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Since the 2020 Abraham Accords, in which several Gulf and Arab nations, including Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), normalized relations with Israel, speculation has grown about when Saudi Arabia—arguably the most influential Arab state—would follow suit.
By agreeing to normalization deals, Bahrain and the UAE ended the longstanding Arab consensus that there should be no official recognition of Israel without a two-state solution for Palestinians. These agreements were brokered under the administration of former US President Donald Trump, and the question of when Saudi Arabia might normalize relations with Israel has since become central to discussions on Middle Eastern diplomacy.
However, MBS’s recent remarks firmly re-establish Saudi Arabia’s position within that original consensus. The Crown Prince’s message is clear: there will be no shift in Saudi policy without the creation of a Palestinian state, which has long been a cornerstone of Arab support for the Palestinian cause.
US Diplomatic Push for Normalization
The United States has been heavily involved in trying to facilitate normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during a recent visit to Haiti on September 6, expressed optimism that a normalization deal could be struck before the end of US President Joe Biden’s administration in January 2025. Blinken hinted that the success of such an agreement could hinge on a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages, which would improve the regional atmosphere for diplomatic progress.
“I think if we can get a ceasefire in Gaza, there remains an opportunity through the balance of this administration to move forward on normalization,” Blinken said, holding out hope for a significant diplomatic breakthrough.
The US government has also been preparing a comprehensive security package for Saudi Arabia as part of its strategy to incentivize normalization. The deal is expected to include alliance-style security guarantees from Washington to Riyadh. However, for this to happen, Saudi Arabia has remained firm in its demand for a credible path to Palestinian statehood.
Blinken reiterated this condition while speaking at the World Economic Forum in Riyadh earlier this year: “In order to move forward with normalization, two things will be required—calm in Gaza and a credible pathway to a Palestinian state.”
Despite the diplomatic momentum, Saudi Arabia has remained unwavering in its position, insisting on a clear and actionable commitment to Palestinian statehood, a demand that clashes with the policies of the current Israeli government.
Israeli Government’s Opposition to Palestinian Statehood
The chances of meeting Saudi Arabia’s demands for a Palestinian state, however, face a significant hurdle from the hard-right government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu’s administration, composed of far-right coalition partners, is fundamentally opposed to the idea of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu has maintained a firm stance on retaining Israeli control over all of Jerusalem and has expanded settlement construction in the occupied West Bank, actions that are widely viewed as antithetical to the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.
This hardline stance creates an apparent deadlock in negotiations. While the US is keen to broker a deal that would strengthen its influence in the Middle East and secure a legacy foreign policy achievement for the Biden administration, Netanyahu’s opposition to Palestinian statehood presents a serious impediment.
In this complex geopolitical landscape, Prince Mohammed’s declaration that Saudi Arabia will not engage in normalization without a two-state solution underscores the challenges ahead. While the Abraham Accords may have created pathways for diplomatic and economic cooperation between Israel and some Arab states, Saudi Arabia remains a critical outlier. Its influence as a regional power and its position as custodian of Islam’s holiest sites make its stance particularly important for any future peace process.
Regional and International Implications
Saudi Arabia’s refusal to normalize ties with Israel without progress on Palestinian statehood also carries significant regional and international implications. It highlights the persistent challenges of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which remains a flashpoint for tensions across the Middle East.
Furthermore, Riyadh’s unwavering position strengthens its standing in the Arab world as a key defender of Palestinian rights, reinforcing its leadership role in advocating for a just solution. At the same time, it casts uncertainty on the future of broader regional normalization efforts that the US has been working to promote.
As the clock ticks down on the Biden administration’s diplomatic efforts, it remains to be seen whether the conditions necessary for normalization can be met. For now, Saudi Arabia has made it clear that Palestinian statehood is a line that cannot be crossed.
