Short Rains Expected to Begin Mid-October in Kenya

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released its weather forecast for the upcoming short rains season, signaling that the rains will begin between the third and fourth week of October 2024. This period, known for its characteristic short but intense rainfall, is a critical time for agricultural activities, water resource replenishment, and general preparedness for potential weather-related challenges. In this article, we will delve into the specifics of the forecast, its implications for various sectors of the economy, and how communities can best prepare for the season.

Overview of the 2024 Short Rains Season

According to the KMD, the short rains season is expected to commence across different parts of the country at varying times. The rains will start earlier in central and western regions, including Nairobi County, where onset is predicted between the third and fourth week of October. For the eastern part of the country, the rains are expected to begin slightly later, between the fourth week of October and the first week of November. Despite the delayed onset in some areas, the KMD anticipates that several regions will experience near to above-average rainfall during the season.

Rainfall Distribution and Expected Patterns

One of the key takeaways from the KMD’s weather outlook is the variation in rainfall distribution across the country. Notably, regions such as the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central and South Rift Valley, and parts of the Northwest are expected to receive near to above-average rainfall for the month of October. This prediction is particularly significant for the agricultural communities in these areas, where the rains will likely provide favorable conditions for crop growth and livestock farming.

The Highlands east of the Rift Valley, which includes Nairobi County, are also expected to experience similar rainfall patterns. However, other regions such as isolated parts of the Northeast (e.g., Marsabit), the Southeast (e.g., Machakos and Kajiado), and the Coastal region are expected to receive near to below-average rainfall. The Southeastern lowlands and most parts of the Northeastern zone are projected to experience dry conditions throughout the season, which may exacerbate existing water shortages and drought-related challenges in these areas.

The uneven distribution of rainfall across the country is likely to pose a challenge to both farmers and local authorities. While some regions may benefit from adequate rainfall, others may continue to experience drought-like conditions, requiring adaptive measures to mitigate the adverse effects of a poor rainy season.

Depressed Rainfall and Its Impacts

A major concern highlighted by the KMD is the likelihood of depressed rainfall over large parts of the country. This means that while some areas may experience near or above-average rainfall, the distribution will be poorly spaced both in time and location. The central sector, including Nairobi and its surroundings, is expected to receive a poor to fair distribution of rainfall, meaning that while rains may fall, they will likely be concentrated in short, intense bursts with extended dry periods in between.

The western sector, comprising regions such as the Rift Valley and parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, is projected to experience fair to good rainfall distribution. This suggests that these regions will have more consistent rains over the October-December period, providing better support for agricultural activities. However, even in these regions, it is critical to remain cautious as unpredictable weather patterns could still lead to localized flooding or drought conditions.

For the rest of the country, particularly the coastal regions and northeastern parts, the outlook is less optimistic. Poor distribution of rainfall is expected, and communities in these areas should prepare for the possibility of prolonged dry spells and a lack of sufficient water resources.

The Role of Global Climate Patterns

The KMD’s forecast is based on models that consider the expected evolution of global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), a major factor influencing rainfall patterns in Kenya. In recent years, the variability of global SSTs has led to increased unpredictability in weather patterns, particularly in regions like East Africa, where the onset and intensity of seasonal rains are closely linked to these global climatic factors.

One of the major climate phenomena influencing the weather in Kenya is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can either enhance or suppress rainfall depending on whether it is in a positive or negative phase. A positive IOD generally leads to increased rainfall in East Africa, while a negative phase can result in drier conditions. The ongoing monitoring of global SSTs will help refine predictions about the overall impact of these patterns on the short rains season.

Temperature Outlook: Warmer Than Average

In addition to rainfall predictions, the KMD has also provided insights into temperature trends for the October-December period. According to the forecast, temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across most parts of the country. The central and eastern regions, including urban centers such as Nairobi, will likely experience significantly higher temperatures than usual.

Warmer-than-average temperatures can have both positive and negative effects. On one hand, they may facilitate faster crop growth in areas that receive sufficient rainfall. On the other hand, they can increase the rate of evaporation, exacerbating water shortages in already dry regions. Warmer temperatures also increase the likelihood of heatwaves and place additional stress on water resources, livestock, and agricultural productivity.

For farmers and other sectors of the economy that depend on natural resources, it is essential to closely monitor temperature trends and take steps to mitigate the potential impacts of heat stress. Simple measures such as using shade nets, improving irrigation efficiency, and optimizing water storage can go a long way in coping with higher temperatures.

Preparing for the Short Rains: Key Considerations for Communities

Given the variability of rainfall distribution and the likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures, it is crucial for communities across Kenya to prepare accordingly. Some of the key steps that local authorities and residents can take to mitigate the impacts of the season include:

1. Water Harvesting and Storage: In regions that are likely to receive above-average rainfall, households and local authorities should prioritize harvesting rainwater. Building water storage facilities and reservoirs can help mitigate the effects of dry spells and ensure water availability during periods of low rainfall.
2. Flood Preparedness: In areas where intense rainfall is expected, such as the western sector, communities should prepare for the possibility of localized flooding. Local governments should reinforce drainage systems, create awareness on flood risks, and ensure that early warning systems are in place to protect lives and property.
3. Agricultural Planning: Farmers should carefully plan their planting and harvesting schedules based on the forecast. In regions expecting good rainfall distribution, farmers can take advantage of the favorable conditions by planting early and using drought-resistant crop varieties. In contrast, farmers in drier regions should consider planting crops that require less water or adjusting their irrigation practices to conserve water.
4. Health and Livelihoods: The expected warmer temperatures may also pose health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions. Communities should be educated about the risks of heat stress and dehydration, and local health services should be prepared to handle an increase in temperature-related illnesses.

Conclusion

As Kenya prepares for the October-December 2024 short rains season, it is essential for individuals, businesses, and governments to remain vigilant and adaptable. While some regions are expected to receive beneficial rainfall, the forecast indicates that many areas will experience depressed rainfall and warmer-than-average temperatures. This variability in weather conditions underscores the importance of preparedness and proactive measures to mitigate the potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods.

By staying informed and taking appropriate actions, Kenyans can navigate the challenges of the season while maximizing the opportunities presented by the rains. The Kenya Meteorological Department will continue to monitor weather conditions and provide updates, ensuring that the public remains aware of any changes in the forecast.