Southern California is bracing for some much-needed rainfall, albeit in small doses, as a weak storm moves southward along the coast this weekend. The storm promises to bring just enough moisture to dampen the dry, brush-filled landscape, helping to ease the wildfire risk temporarily. However, the ongoing threat of wildfires will persist, especially with the dry winds leading up to the rain’s arrival.
AccuWeather meteorologists predict that from Friday to Sunday, the storm will pull in Pacific moisture, offering coastal areas and the Southern California mountains a slight reprieve. “Nearly every location along the coastal regions and mountain areas of Southern California will experience some showers this weekend,” said Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk. Coastal areas are expected to receive up to 0.10 inches of rain, while some mountain regions could see up to 0.25 inches or more. This rainfall, although modest, could provide a temporary relief from the persistent dryness that has plagued the region for months.
As the storm rolls in, snow levels are forecast to drop between 4,000 and 5,000 feet, meaning the Tejon Pass and other higher elevations may see some wet snow, particularly by Saturday night. The rainfall, combined with a rise in humidity and a break from the dry offshore winds, should help to dampen the tinder-dry brush in the region. This will be a welcome sight for residents, as the higher humidity will provide a brief moment of respite from the heightened wildfire threat.
For Los Angeles, the last measurable rainfall was recorded on December 24, when only a mere 0.02 inches fell. Since then, the region has only seen a tiny fraction—about 3%—of its typical rainfall for the season. As of January 21, total rainfall since June 1 has amounted to just 0.16 inches, primarily from November’s brief storms.
Although the rain will likely improve air quality by settling dust and particulates, it may also create slick road conditions. The long dry spell has allowed ash and other debris to accumulate on streets and highways, which could become hazardous when mixed with even light rainfall. Fortunately, forecasters believe the amount of rain expected will not trigger mudslides or debris flows in areas scarred by past wildfires.
Before the rain arrives, Southern California will experience continued dry, offshore winds through Friday. Santa Ana winds, which are notorious for fueling wildfires, will gust between 40 and 60 mph, creating critical fire risk conditions. This dry wind event, while not as severe as some past Santa Ana events, will still leave the region vulnerable to fires until the rain can help dampen the conditions.
Looking ahead, meteorologists suggest that the next significant rainfall in Southern California may not occur until February 10-23. If that forecast proves correct, the region may face an extended dry spell through March, which would only exacerbate the already dangerous wildfire conditions.
While the rain is certainly a welcome break, the region’s wildfire risk remains high, and residents will need to stay vigilant as they face the ongoing battle between drought, fire, and rainfall.
