The prospect of a woman running a sub-four-minute mile has been compared to landing on Mars an extraordinary challenge, yet one that may not be entirely impossible. A recent study published in the Royal Society Open Science journal suggests that, with the right conditions, this feat could be within reach. The most likely candidate? Faith Kipyegon, the Kenyan Olympic 1500m champion and one of the greatest female middle-distance runners in history.
The study, led by a team of researchers specializing in human performance, examined Kipyegon’s record-breaking run in Monaco, where she shattered the women’s mile world record with a time of 4:07.64. Despite less-than-ideal drafting and running the last 600 meters alone, she still managed to achieve this remarkable performance. According to the research, if she had a team of pacemakers strategically positioned in front and behind her, wind resistance could have been reduced by 72%. The study estimates that, under these conditions, she could theoretically clock in at 3:59.37.
However, experts remain skeptical. While improved aerodynamics may provide some benefit, many believe the impact would not be enough to bridge the nearly eight-second gap required. Some estimate that enhanced drafting might save only a second and a half far from what’s needed to break the barrier. The physiological demands of such a performance are also immense. Historically, to achieve a sub-four-minute mile, an athlete would likely need to run a 4x400m relay leg in around 50 seconds and an 800m in roughly 1:53 times that only a few women have ever approached.
Training methods are unlikely to provide the breakthrough. Many of the techniques used by elite athletes today have remained largely unchanged for decades. That leaves advancements in footwear technology as the most promising factor. With running shoes continuously evolving, new models are expected to shave valuable time off track performances. Some upcoming designs have already been described as “space-age” and could provide an edge.
If Kipyegon were to attempt a sub-four-minute mile, additional advantages could be explored, such as selecting an optimal track. Some believe that attempting the record on a banked indoor track, like the one in Boston where recent records have been set, could make a difference. There are also legal performance-enhancing aids, such as specialized nutrition systems that help athletes sustain high-intensity efforts for longer.
While the possibility remains uncertain, it is not entirely out of the question. The shoe technology and pacing improvements will undoubtedly bring athletes closer, but significant progress still needs to be made. If an athlete reaches the 4:02-4:03 range, the conversation will become much more serious.
Despite the doubts, an attempt would still be worth watching. Even if Kipyegon were to fall short, running a 4:03 or 4:04 would still be an extraordinary achievement, pushing the boundaries of what is considered possible in women’s middle-distance running.
