Manchester City’s season has taken an unexpected downturn, leaving the FA Cup as their last realistic chance for silverware. A combination of poor summer recruitment, injuries, and the natural decline of a once-dominant squad has left Pep Guardiola’s side struggling to maintain their usual high standards.
The decision to sell Julián Álvarez to Atlético Madrid for a club-record £81.5 million and sign only Savinho for £30 million, along with the return of a 34-year-old Ilkay Gündogan, has backfired. Guardiola’s confidence in his squad’s ability to continue competing at the highest level without significant reinforcements has proven to be a rare misjudgment.
Rodri’s anterior cruciate ligament injury in September was a huge blow, compounded by injuries to key defenders such as John Stones, Rúben Dias, Nathan Aké, and Manuel Akanji. Further setbacks to Oscar Bobb, Jack Grealish, Ederson, Jérémy Doku, Mateo Kovacic, Kyle Walker, Erling Haaland, and Kevin De Bruyne have left the squad depleted. Even with such adversity, sitting fourth in the Premier League with 11 games remaining is a testament to the quality that still exists within the team.
Despite suggestions from City’s sporting director and chief executive to strengthen the squad before the season, Guardiola opted against it. The club later added Nico González, Abdukodir Khusanov, Omar Marmoush, and Vitor Reis in January, but by then, the damage had already been done. The new signings arrived at a club struggling with confidence and form, making it nearly impossible to integrate them effectively. This was evident in the Champions League, where City were eliminated by Real Madrid in a heavy 6-3 aggregate defeat.
Their struggles were apparent earlier in the season when a 2-1 Carabao Cup exit to Tottenham in late October signaled the beginning of their decline. What followed was a disastrous run of five straight defeats, a reality check for a squad that had appeared invincible in recent years.
Guardiola has always insisted that past success means nothing in the pursuit of continued excellence. However, as City’s struggles have mounted, he has increasingly referenced the achievements of the past, perhaps as a way to deflect scrutiny. He has remained fiercely loyal to veterans like Gündogan, De Bruyne, and Bernardo Silva, acknowledging their immense contributions to the club’s success.
By the time next season begins, 11 members of the squad will be 30 or older, highlighting the challenges of maintaining Guardiola’s intense playing style. Time inevitably catches up with even the greatest teams, and City’s decline this season suggests the need for a major rebuild.
As they prepare to face a Championship side in the FA Cup, the competition remains their last hope for silverware. Guardiola, who has won at least one trophy in every season since his first in charge, knows what is at stake. When asked about the significance of winning the FA Cup and securing a top-four finish, he chose to focus only on the latter, avoiding discussions about a trophy that remains uncertain.
City’s decline has been stark. In late October, they led the Premier League after nine games, two points clear of Liverpool. However, cracks were already forming, with nine goals conceded by that stage—far from disastrous but significantly more than Liverpool’s five. Now, with 37 goals conceded compared to Liverpool’s 26, the defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed.
Despite trailing Liverpool by 20 points, Guardiola remains defiant, insisting that nothing is impossible. While history proves that his teams have defied expectations before, this season’s struggles suggest that City’s dominance has reached its breaking point.
