The Sudanese army reported the first defection of a senior commander from its rival, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), after more than 18 months of intense fighting. On Sunday, October 20, 2024, the army announced that Abuagla Keikal, a top RSF commander in the southeastern state of El Gezira, defected along with several of his troops. This move, unprecedented since the conflict began, signals a potential shift in the dynamics of the war, which has caused one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
Although the RSF did not immediately respond to the army’s claims, the defection of Keikal, a former army officer who rose through the ranks of the RSF, could mark a critical moment in the military campaign, especially as the army has recently reported gains against the RSF in parts of the capital, Khartoum. The conflict, which erupted in April 2023, has displaced millions of people, driven parts of the country to the brink of famine, and drawn in external actors supplying both sides with material support.
The Defection of Abuagla Keikal: A Break in RSF Ranks
According to the Sudanese military, Abuagla Keikal, who once served as an officer in the regular army before becoming a high-ranking commander within the RSF, defected due to dissatisfaction with the RSF’s “destructive agenda.” While the army did not provide further details regarding Keikal’s motivations or the circumstances of his defection, supporters of the army circulated photos on social media allegedly showing Keikal after he made the decision to leave the RSF. However, there has been no official statement from Keikal himself, either in print or on video, leaving speculation as to whether this defection was part of a broader internal dissent within the RSF or a singular act of personal conscience.
This defection is the first known instance of a senior RSF commander abandoning the paramilitary force, which has so far maintained a firm grip on several regions across Sudan, including much of Khartoum and other strategic areas. Keikal’s departure, if confirmed, could potentially inspire others within the RSF ranks who are disillusioned with the ongoing conflict to follow suit. The RSF, known for its brutality and forceful tactics during the war, has been at odds with the Sudanese military since the two forces, once allies in a coup that ousted long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir, turned against each other in a power struggle over control of the country.
Background to the Conflict: From Allies to Enemies
The roots of the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF stretch back to Sudan’s complex political landscape, shaped by years of dictatorship, military coups, and failed attempts at democratic transition. In 2019, after mass protests led to the ouster of Omar al-Bashir, Sudan entered a fragile transitional period under a power-sharing agreement between the military and civilian leaders. However, tensions between the SAF and RSF simmered beneath the surface, particularly as the RSF, under the leadership of General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti, sought to consolidate power.
In October 2021, the RSF and SAF staged a joint coup, derailing Sudan’s path to democratic transition. However, their alliance soon fractured, with both forces jostling for dominance in anticipation of an internationally backed move toward civilian rule. The tensions boiled over in April 2023, sparking a full-scale war between the two factions.
A Humanitarian Crisis Worsens
Since the outbreak of fighting, the conflict has displaced more than 10 million Sudanese, according to U.N. reports. Many have fled to neighboring countries such as Chad, Egypt, and South Sudan, straining regional resources and triggering a broader refugee crisis. The war has devastated Sudan’s economy, disrupted basic services, and plunged parts of the country into extreme hunger or famine. Humanitarian agencies have struggled to deliver aid to those most in need, as the conflict has blocked access to several areas.
The U.N. has repeatedly warned that the situation in Sudan could become one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world if the fighting does not cease. The destruction of infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, and markets, has left millions without access to healthcare, education, or basic supplies. Food insecurity is rampant, with prices of essential goods skyrocketing, while the health system has collapsed under the strain of treating the wounded and combating outbreaks of disease.
Additionally, the war has exacerbated ethnic tensions, particularly in the Darfur region, where both the RSF and the army have been accused of committing atrocities. The international community has condemned the violence but has so far failed to broker a lasting ceasefire, despite several attempts at mediation.
Foreign Powers and Regional Influence
The conflict in Sudan has not only displaced millions internally but has also drawn in foreign powers, each with their own vested interests in the outcome. Several countries, including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, have provided material support to both sides, complicating efforts to reach a peaceful resolution. Egypt, which shares a long border with Sudan, is particularly concerned about the stability of its southern neighbor, fearing that prolonged conflict could lead to a spillover of violence into its own territory.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia, both key players in the Gulf region, have been accused of providing arms and financial support to both the RSF and SAF, seeking to maintain influence over whoever emerges as the victor in the conflict. At the same time, Sudan’s other neighbors, such as Chad and South Sudan, are grappling with the refugee influx and the potential destabilization of their own borders.
The involvement of foreign powers has added another layer of complexity to the conflict, making it more difficult for international mediators to broker peace. While the African Union (AU) and the United Nations have made several attempts to negotiate ceasefires, these efforts have repeatedly failed, as both sides have continued to engage in heavy fighting.
What the Defection Could Mean for the Future of the Conflict
Abuagla Keikal’s defection could be a pivotal moment in the Sudanese conflict, offering the SAF a much-needed morale boost and raising questions about the RSF’s internal cohesion. If more commanders follow Keikal’s lead, the RSF could find itself weakened, both militarily and politically. The SAF has already reported recent gains against the RSF in Khartoum and other key areas, and Keikal’s defection may further tilt the balance in favor of the army.
However, it is too early to determine whether this defection represents the beginning of a broader trend or if it is an isolated incident. The RSF, despite the defection, remains a formidable force, with control over significant portions of the country and backing from external actors. The conflict is likely far from over, and the humanitarian crisis continues to deepen as both sides show little willingness to engage in meaningful peace talks.
Conclusion: A Fragile Moment in Sudan’s Tragic War
Sudan’s conflict, now over 18 months old, has left the country in ruins and its people in despair. Abuagla Keikal’s defection from the RSF represents a potential turning point in the war, but the road to peace remains uncertain. With millions displaced, parts of the country on the brink of famine, and foreign powers entangled in the fight, Sudan faces an uphill battle to restore stability. As the international community continues to push for a negotiated solution, the question remains whether internal fractures within the warring factions will be enough to bring an end to one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
