Syria’s future remains uncertain following the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime after more than 50 years of repressive rule. The events unfolding in Damascus marked by the rapid advance of Islamist groups like Hayat Tahrir-al Shams (HTS) have left the country on the cusp of significant change, yet it remains unclear what Syria’s new order will ultimately look like. The Arab world, international observers, and Syrians themselves are watching closely as the power dynamics shift dramatically, challenging the entrenched authoritarianism that defined the Assad era.
A Sudden, Stunning Turn of Events
For decades, Syria was dominated by the Assad family’s autocratic rule, which suppressed dissent and dissenters with brutal force. The fall of Assad’s regime was marked by a rapid and unexpected advance of Islamist forces, particularly HTS, which quickly captured Damascus. This was not a coordinated coup but rather a rapid advance by local rebel groups and fighters from the former Free Syrian Army (FSA). The capture of the capital by HTS was swift and almost bloodless, reflecting the disintegration of Assad’s control over the country. This sudden turn of events has left many observers and international powers scrambling to understand the implications and figure out what comes next.
The Uncertain Path Forward
The swift fall of Damascus has not only ended Assad’s reign but also opened a new chapter for Syria. The “story is not written yet,” as Marie Forestier, senior Syria advisor for the European Institute of Peace, noted. The challenge now is to consolidate power and establish a new order amidst a fragmented and diverse society. The HTS leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jowlani (Ahmed al-Sharaa), is now in the spotlight, tasked with not only consolidating control but also managing a complex tapestry of religious and ethnic communities. His messages of inclusivity and reassurance to Syria’s minority groups are crucial, but they come with a history that raises skepticism about his intentions and capabilities.
The Role of International Powers
The international community is closely watching the developments in Syria, with each player having a stake in the country’s future. Russia, a key ally of Assad’s regime, expressed concerns over HTS’s rapid rise, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov calling it “inadmissible” for a group he deemed terrorists to take control. Meanwhile, Western countries, which once supported the FSA, are now watching cautiously, unsure of how to engage with the new reality. Turkey, in particular, faces a dilemma with its own Kurdish concerns, as the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have also been emboldened by Assad’s fall.
The regional impact is significant. Neighboring countries, including Iraq and Jordan, are worried about the spillover of militant groups and the destabilization of their own borders. The collapse of the Assad regime has created an immediate power vacuum, one that regional players Turkey, Iran, and the Gulf States are keen to influence. The Doha Forum, where key discussions took place, highlighted the urgency of forming an inclusive political process in Syria, as emphasized by UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson. The challenge remains to establish a government that can maintain order while being inclusive of Syria’s diverse population.
A Long Road Ahead
The process of reconciliation and rebuilding in Syria will be fraught with challenges. The rise of HTS, despite their conciliatory messages, raises questions about the future of Syria’s political landscape. The group’s background, marked by an authoritarian rule in Idlib, presents a significant challenge to the creation of a more democratic and inclusive state. The Syrian people are wary of a new form of oppression, this time under a different guise.
The international community’s response will be crucial in shaping Syria’s future. The focus now is on creating a path to peace, dignity, and reconciliation for all Syrians, as Pederson noted. The Syrian conflict has scarred the country deeply, but the hope now lies in a new chapter that seeks to address the aspirations and grievances of the Syrian people.
As HTS and other factions assert their power, the world watches to see how Syria will emerge from this dark chapter. The future is not yet written, and what follows will be determined by the choices Syrians and the international community make in the coming months and years. The path to peace may be long and challenging, but it remains the hope of many that Syria’s next chapter will be one of stability and inclusion.
