Tanzania’s Political Tensions: A Return to Repression Under President Samia?

Tanzania, once a beacon of hope for political reform in East Africa, is now facing a growing crisis as concerns mount over the resurgence of repression and violence. When President Samia Suluhu Hassan assumed power in 2021 as the country’s first female leader, there was widespread optimism that she would move the nation toward greater political freedom, distancing it from the autocratic legacy of her predecessor, John Magufuli. However, recent events, including abductions, arrests, and the brutal killing of opposition official Ali Kibao, suggest that Tanzania may be sliding back into the repressive era of Magufuli.

Under Magufuli’s administration from 2015 until his sudden death in 2021, Tanzania experienced a period of harsh political repression. The government cracked down on opposition parties, civil society organizations, and media, curtailing freedoms and stifling dissent. Magufuli’s strongman tactics earned him widespread criticism internationally, though he maintained substantial support at home for his populist economic policies.

When Samia took over as president, following Magufuli’s death from what was officially reported as heart complications, the political climate briefly changed. Samia quickly distanced herself from Magufuli’s heavy-handed methods, calling for reconciliation and promising reforms. She lifted a ban on opposition rallies, invited opposition leaders to dialogue, and committed to upholding democratic freedoms. Her approach won her praise both locally and internationally, with many believing Tanzania had turned a new page.

Rising Political Violence and Repression

However, by mid-2023, cracks began to appear in Samia’s reform agenda. A resurgence of political violence has cast doubt on her government’s commitment to democracy. In a shocking turn of events, opposition official Ali Kibao was abducted, killed, and doused in acid by unknown assailants in August 2023. The murder sent shockwaves across the country and ignited protests led by opposition parties, including the main opposition party Chadema.

Chadema’s deputy leader, Tundu Lissu, a long-time critic of the ruling government, emerged as a vocal figure in the protests against the killing. Lissu’s history with political violence in Tanzania is well known; in 2017, he narrowly survived an assassination attempt when his vehicle was sprayed with bullets in an attack widely believed to be politically motivated. After years in exile in Belgium, Lissu returned to Tanzania in 2022, encouraged by Samia’s early reformist stance. Yet, by 2023, he had become increasingly disillusioned, accusing the government of orchestrating violence against opposition figures and reneging on its promises of reform.

“The political situation in Tanzania is worrisome in the extreme,” Lissu told the BBC in August 2023, a week before his own arrest. He had planned to protest against Kibao’s killing and the alleged disappearance of other government critics. Instead, Lissu was arrested, along with hundreds of Chadema members, in what appeared to be a coordinated effort to suppress dissent.

A Return to Magufuli-Era Tactics?

For Lissu and other opposition leaders, the recent wave of arrests and violence is reminiscent of the repression that characterized Tanzania under Magufuli. Between 2016 and 2020, Magufuli’s government was marked by the systematic silencing of opposition voices through intimidation, arrests, and, in extreme cases, violent attacks. Human rights groups regularly condemned the Tanzanian government for its disregard for civil liberties during this period.

Lissu, who had returned to Tanzania with hopes of “writing a new chapter” for the country, now believes those hopes have been dashed. “[There have been] no reforms whatsoever. No reforms of a democratic nature,” Lissu said, alleging that the recent violent incidents are politically motivated and linked to the security forces. He warned that the current political climate could be a harbinger of worse to come, signaling a potential return to the oppressive tactics of the Magufuli era.

While the police have denied any involvement in the violence, and the ruling CCM party has remained largely silent, these incidents have tarnished President Samia’s image as a reformer. Rights groups and Western diplomats have called for immediate investigations into the arbitrary detentions and political violence, but thus far, the Tanzanian government’s response has been mixed.

In a public address following Kibao’s death, President Samia condemned the killing and ordered a swift investigation. However, she also warned “outsiders” against interfering in Tanzania’s internal affairs, suggesting a defensive posture in the face of growing international criticism. “Our country is a democracy, and every citizen has the right to live,” she said, while also expressing surprise at the widespread outrage over Kibao’s death. “Death is death,” she added, calling on Tanzanians to unite in condemning such acts, rather than accusing the government of involvement.

A Fractured Political Landscape

Political analysts believe that the current political tensions stem from a lack of trust and good faith between the ruling CCM party and opposition groups. Thomas Kibwana, a Tanzanian political analyst, noted that while Samia initially appeared open to dialogue with the opposition, the breakdown in communication between the two sides has stalled any progress toward meaningful reform. Chadema, frustrated by the slow pace of change, has increasingly resorted to protest action, which the government has met with force.

“This is up to both sides – for them to sit down and come back to the talks,” Kibwana told the BBC, noting that both the opposition and the government need to commit to resolving the current impasse. However, with elections on the horizon, the political landscape is becoming increasingly polarized.

The upcoming local government elections in late 2023 and the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2024 will be critical tests for Samia’s leadership. These will be the first elections held under her presidency, and they will reveal whether her administration can navigate the growing political unrest or whether it will succumb to the repressive tactics that defined Magufuli’s rule.

Samia, who was Magufuli’s vice president, inherited the presidency in a time of crisis, as Tanzania grappled with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and widespread public mistrust of the government’s handling of the crisis. Despite her initial efforts to distance herself from Magufuli’s legacy, Samia remains tied to the CCM, which has held power since Tanzania gained independence from Britain in 1961. The party’s dominance has led to accusations that it is unwilling to cede power, even in the face of growing opposition.

CCM’s Internal Struggles

According to ACT-Wazalendo, Tanzania’s second-largest opposition party, Samia’s reform agenda may have been stymied by internal pressures within CCM. Party leader Dorothy Semu suggested that the CCM’s leadership may be fearful that reforms could weaken the party’s grip on power, particularly as the 2024 elections approach.

“We have heard a CCM bigwig saying that if she had maintained that pace which she came in with, she would lose the country to the opposition,” Semu told the BBC. This fear, she added, may have led Samia to slow down her reform efforts.

Despite these setbacks, Semu acknowledged that the political climate under Samia is still more open than it was during the Magufuli era. “We have now a more open civic space,” she said, pointing to the ability of opposition parties to organize rallies and engage in political discourse without the same level of fear they experienced under Magufuli.

However, Semu also expressed caution as the elections approach, noting that while there are reasons to be hopeful, “we are not assured everything is going to be OK.”

The Future of Tanzania’s Democracy

As Tanzania heads into a crucial election cycle, the question of whether Samia can maintain her reformist image while balancing the internal dynamics of her party remains unanswered. Lawyer and activist Fatma Karume believes that genuine reform in Tanzania will require more than just a change in leadership – it will require a fundamental overhaul of the country’s political system.

“In Tanzania, we have something called an imperial presidency,” Karume explained, arguing that the country’s laws grant the president an overwhelming concentration of power. While Samia may not be as authoritarian as Magufuli, Karume warned that Tanzania’s political structure still allows for significant abuses of power.

For now, Tanzania remains at a crossroads. The promise of reconciliation and reform that accompanied Samia’s rise to power has dimmed, overshadowed by a resurgence of political violence and a growing crackdown on dissent. As the nation prepares for its next round of elections, the future of its democracy hangs in the balance, with both hope and fear shaping the political landscape.