The ceasefire that brought an end to the relentless Israeli airstrikes and ushered Lebanon into a fragile peace was the result of weeks of intense diplomatic negotiations, often uncertain until the final moments. The deal, shaped by tireless shuttle diplomacy and significant international pressure, marked a turning point after 14 months of escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
The hostilities began when Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based Shiite militant group, fired rockets at Israeli military targets in support of Hamas in October 2022. Over the course of the war, Hezbollah’s main patron, Iran, became increasingly involved, making the conflict a regional flashpoint with the potential for a much larger war. The violence escalated throughout 2023, particularly during the summer, when Israel launched a series of military strikes that decimated much of southern Lebanon. By the fall, Israel had inflicted significant blows to Hezbollah, but a ceasefire was still nowhere in sight.
Diplomacy played a crucial role in bringing about the truce. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein shuttled back and forth between Jerusalem and Beirut, despite the distractions of the upcoming U.S. election. France, an influential partner, also played a pivotal role. With tensions rising, Israel had indicated that its military objectives in Lebanon had largely been achieved, yet both sides remained at an impasse over the terms of a ceasefire. Behind the scenes, countries like France and the United States, with their varying interests in the region, worked tirelessly to broker a deal.
The path to the ceasefire was fraught with obstacles. Israel’s insistence on maintaining the right to strike Hezbollah if it violated U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which had ended a previous war between the two in 2006, was a sticking point. Lebanon, however, was opposed to this. Eventually, a compromise was reached, with Israel and the U.S. agreeing on a side deal that allowed Israel to defend itself while attempting to avoid further military escalation. The parties also engaged in intense negotiations over the redeployment of troops, with France’s input proving crucial in breaking the deadlock.
The stakes were high. With large swaths of Lebanon in ruins and more than a million Lebanese displaced, the humanitarian crisis was dire. Hezbollah, while still resisting, had begun to recognize the need for a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Israel’s leadership, faced with a two-front war, was under growing domestic pressure to end the conflict, especially as the toll of the conflict began to strain Israel’s economy and military reserves.
Despite some international tensions, particularly with the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, the diplomatic effort finally gained momentum. French President Emmanuel Macron’s role in defusing tensions between Israel and France, despite the threats of an arrest warrant, proved vital. The ICC warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant threatened to derail the process, but after phone calls between U.S. President Joe Biden, Macron, and Netanyahu, the situation was defused, and France’s role in the talks remained intact.
In the final days of negotiations, the U.S. exerted pressure on both Israel and Lebanon to reach an agreement. Hochstein’s warning that the U.S. would withdraw from the mediation effort if the ceasefire was not concluded within days pushed both sides to the table. By the evening of November 5, 2024, the deal was in place, and by the following day, the bombs stopped falling.
The ceasefire, while fragile, represented a significant diplomatic achievement. It marked the end of a devastating chapter in Lebanon’s history, one defined by war and destruction, and brought the country a step closer to peace albeit an uneasy one. With ongoing tensions, the challenge now lies in maintaining the truce and ensuring that the fragile peace holds, with diplomacy continuing to play a critical role in preventing further escalation.
