Kenya’s political landscape is ever-evolving, and the recent rapprochement between President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga has sparked speculation about the 2027 elections. The political truce between these two heavyweights could change the fate of numerous politicians, especially those vying for county governorships. First-term governors, in particular, may emerge as the primary beneficiaries of this newfound unity. With the deal potentially shielding them from intense political competition, some of these county chiefs could be “ring-fenced” from challengers, ensuring their re-election in 2027.
Governors, especially those serving their first term, stand to gain significantly if the deal holds, with various factors at play pointing to a favorable environment for their political survival. Raila and Ruto both have key allies who serve as county governors, and these figures are likely to benefit from the political realignment. At the heart of this new equation are governors like Simba Arati (Kisii) and Abdulswamad Nassir (Mombasa), who are close confidants of the two leaders and occupy high-ranking positions within their respective parties.
Realignment in Key Counties
The political truce may come with sacrifices for certain political figures, particularly those aiming to unseat first-term governors. Political commentator Daniel Orogo has warned of potential political casualties if the Ruto-Raila deal remains intact through the 2027 elections. According to Orogo, politicians in Nairobi, Nyanza, Coast, and Western regions, many of whom are close to either Ruto or Raila, could face significant obstacles. These challenges arise from the possibility of both leaders preventing their parties from competing against one another in key counties.
This echoes the fallout from the infamous “Handshake” between Raila and then-President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2018, which saw many political careers cut short. Leaders such as Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and his Embakasi North counterpart James Gakuya are openly skeptical of the deal. Both have aspirations for the Nairobi governorship in 2027, where incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja’s re-election ambitions could receive a significant boost from the Raila-Ruto pact. Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s allies, including Gakuya, are already positioning themselves to challenge Sakaja, but the truce may alter the dynamics in Sakaja’s favor.
Despite these political maneuvers, Sakaja has maintained that his alliance with Raila is purely for national unity and not about his political future. In an interview with The Star, Sakaja brushed off concerns, stating, “There are those who have uncertainty political-wise, I have only one driving lesson to them; if you can’t see, don’t go.”
Strategic Sacrifices
The political realignment could result in significant sacrifices, with both Ruto and Raila likely to urge their allies to focus on unity rather than internal competition. By reducing rivalry within their ranks, the two leaders may seek to avoid splitting votes and losing key governorships to rival coalitions. For instance, in counties like Kakamega, where Governor Fernandes Barasa is grappling with internal ODM challenges, the political scene may become even more complicated if the truce endures.
Barasa, who defeated Kenya Kwanza’s Cleophas Malala in 2022, has been in a delicate dance with the ODM party. Recent tensions arose when ODM replaced Philip Maina with Geoffrey Ondiro as the majority leader in the county assembly, leading Barasa to express dissatisfaction with the party’s micro-management of county affairs. However, if the Raila-Ruto deal remains, Barasa could see his position secured, potentially preventing a repeat of the internal party strife.
At the same time, Barasa faces external pressure from Senator Boni Khalwale, a veteran politician who enjoys backing from both Ruto and Raila. With retired Governor Wycliffe Oparanya now in the Cabinet, Khalwale may present a formidable challenge to Barasa’s governorship. However, in the context of a united political front, it is possible that Raila and Ruto will push for cooperation rather than competition among their allies in Kakamega.
Stakes in Mombasa, Narok, and Beyond
Mombasa County could also be significantly impacted by the Raila-Ruto deal. Incumbent Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, a close ally of Raila, is likely to face reduced opposition from political challengers within Ruto’s camp. Nyali MP Mohamed Ali and East African Legislative Assembly MP Hassan Omar are both eyeing the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket for the Mombasa governorship in 2027, but internal squabbles within UDA may weaken their chances, especially if the political truce holds firm.
Similarly, in Narok, first-term Governor Patrick Ntutu stands to benefit from the Ruto-Raila deal. Ntutu, who won the seat in 2022 on a UDA ticket, is expected to face opposition from Senator Ledama Olekina, who has already declared his intent to run for governor in 2027. Narok has historically been a political battleground, and Olekina’s candidacy under the ODM banner could be a serious threat. However, if the Ruto-Raila partnership results in cooperation between their parties, Ntutu’s position may be more secure, especially given his close working relationship with both leaders.
The stakes are equally high in Nakuru, where Governor Susan Kihika will be seeking re-election. Having defeated Lee Kinyanjui of Azimio in 2022, Kihika could leverage the Raila-Ruto deal to consolidate support and fend off future challenges. Nakuru, like Narok, is a crucial political battleground, and any realignment between Kenya Kwanza and ODM could tilt the balance of power in favor of incumbents.
The Nairobi Dilemma
Nairobi County, where Governor Sakaja faces an intense challenge from both Babu Owino and James Gakuya, is perhaps the most significant case study of how the Raila-Ruto deal could influence the 2027 elections. Sakaja’s alliance with Raila could place him in a more advantageous position against challengers from both Kenya Kwanza and ODM. Gakuya, a known ally of Gachagua, has long been positioned as a potential successor to Sakaja, but the truce between Raila and Ruto could significantly complicate this plan.
The possibility of a broader coalition between Kenya Kwanza and ODM in 2027, hinted at by Ruto during a homecoming event for Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, may solidify the political fates of incumbents like Sakaja. With both parties working in concert, it is likely that they will prioritize holding onto key governorships like Nairobi, rather than allowing internal competition to weaken their prospects.
Conclusion
The political truce between President William Ruto and Raila Odinga could have far-reaching consequences for the 2027 elections, especially for first-term governors. As county chiefs hold considerable power and control over billions in county budgets, their positions are often among the most coveted in Kenya’s political arena. With the Ruto-Raila deal in place, many first-term governors, particularly those in ODM and Kenya Kwanza strongholds, may find themselves insulated from intense competition in the next election cycle.
This new political dynamic could potentially marginalize rising political stars, as leaders who had been positioning themselves for governorships may now be forced to shelve their ambitions. The stakes are high for politicians across the country, but for first-term governors like Simba Arati, Abdulswamad Nassir, Patrick Ntutu, and Susan Kihika, the future may hold an easier path to re-election. Whether this political truce endures until 2027 remains to be seen, but for now, it offers a strategic advantage to incumbents across Kenya’s 47 counties.
