As the travel industry settles into 2025, the cruise sector finds itself in an unusual position. While historically, the Wave season typically the first quarter of the year ushers in a surge of bookings due to enticing deals and promotions, this year’s trend has been somewhat anticlimactic. The industry is coming into the year with its strongest booked position in history, and with fewer available cabins to sell, the demand has softened slightly. However, analysts and travel advisors remain optimistic about the industry’s outlook.
One of the most significant factors affecting the Wave season this year is pricing. With many ships already booked well in advance, cruise lines have had little incentive to offer deep discounts. Alex Sharpe, CEO of Signature Travel Network, noted that strong forward bookings have allowed cruise lines to maintain high pricing, even as demand has slightly dipped compared to 2024.
The reduced availability of cabins, particularly in key destinations such as the Caribbean, Europe, and Alaska, has naturally led to higher rates. While demand is still robust, it is slightly lower than last year, creating a different dynamic for travel advisors and prospective cruisers.
Geoff Cox, vice president of sales and marketing at KHM Travel Group, emphasized the impact of these high prices on consumer behavior. “Pricing is high. That’s the main driver for a slow start,” he explained. However, he remained confident about the industry’s stability, pointing out that January saw a record 28% increase in commission payouts for KHM advisors.
Cox and other industry professionals believe that while demand may be slightly lower at the moment, the overall trajectory remains strong. He noted that while some cruise lines, like Royal Caribbean International, have seen a small uptick in bookings, others, like Carnival Cruise Line, have experienced a minor drop. However, he expects sales to pick up, especially as winter-weary travelers seek out warm-weather vacations.
Jackie Friedman, president of host agency Nexion, described this year’s Wave season as less predictable than usual. The early weeks started slower than expected, but in recent weeks, there has been a noticeable increase in bookings, especially in premium, luxury, and river cruise segments.
Several external factors could be contributing to the somewhat muted start. Sharpe pointed to global events such as the wildfires in Los Angeles and political uncertainties surrounding the new U.S. presidential administration as potential reasons for the slower demand. Friedman also highlighted concerns over trade disputes and economic shifts, which could be influencing consumer confidence.
Despite these uncertainties, travel advisors are seeing encouraging signs. The momentum appears to be shifting toward 2026 bookings, indicating that travelers are still planning their vacations, albeit further in advance.
Among the major cruise lines, Royal Caribbean Group has reported the most positive results so far. CEO Jason Liberty stated in late January that the company had experienced “incredible booking activity,” marking its strongest Wave season booking week ever.
According to Liberty, strong economic conditions have helped drive demand. Factors such as high wages, low unemployment, and increased consumer savings have contributed to a travel boom. “American households are wealthier than ever, with continued wage growth and low unemployment driving strong consumer spending,” he said.
Royal Caribbean’s direct-to-consumer booking channels have also performed exceptionally well, aided by advancements in digital platforms. Additionally, the company’s newest ships, Icon of the Seas and Utopia of the Seas, have exceeded expectations in terms of bookings.
Alaska cruises have also seen higher-than-expected demand. Royal Caribbean’s CFO, Naftali Holtz, confirmed that the region continues to perform well, reinforcing confidence in the market.
Cruise industry analysts echo the sentiments of travel professionals, with many pointing to strong pricing as a key indicator of a healthy market. Patrick Scholes, an analyst at Truist Securities, reported that pricing growth for 2025 is surpassing expectations.
Similarly, Cleveland Research Co. conducted a survey in January, revealing that 2025 cruise pricing is trending about 5% higher than in 2024. According to Vince Ciepiel, a senior research analyst at the firm, cruise bookings have outperformed other travel sectors, suggesting sustained consumer interest.
While 2025 is shaping up to be another record-breaking year for the cruise industry, some travel advisors are beginning to shift their focus to 2026. Cox cautioned that slower booking periods could eventually catch up, potentially leading to revenue dips. However, current indicators suggest that consumers continue to prioritize cruise vacations despite economic uncertainties.
Overall, while this year’s Wave season may not have delivered the same level of booking frenzy seen in past years, the cruise industry remains in a strong position. With high pricing, strong consumer interest, and continued innovation from major cruise lines, the outlook remains promising for both travel advisors and the industry as a whole.
