The 2025 cruise season has begun with an anticlimactic Wave season, as travel advisors report that high prices and historically strong pre-bookings have dampened new demand. While cruise lines enter 2025 with their fullest bookings ever, this success has resulted in fewer available cabins and limited opportunities for new bookings, leading to an unusual start to Wave season.
Travel advisors indicate that strong forward bookings have caused prices to remain high, affecting new reservations. Alex Sharpe, CEO of Signature Travel Network, noted that the cruise industry is in a strong position going into 2025, reducing the urgency for last-minute bookings. “Because the industry is so well-booked forward, price has been really strong,” Sharpe explained. While demand has dipped slightly compared to 2024, he emphasized that this is expected given the high level of pre-sold inventory.
Regions such as the Caribbean, Europe, and Alaska have particularly tight availability, making it more challenging for travelers to find affordable options. Geoff Cox, vice president of sales and marketing at KHM Travel Group, highlighted that high pricing is a significant factor in the slow start to Wave season. “Pricing is high. That’s the main driver for a slow start,” Cox said. However, he reassured that 2025 remains financially strong, with KHM’s commission payouts increasing by 28% in January compared to the previous year.
Despite the current slow momentum, Cox expressed confidence in 2025, though he acknowledged that 2026 could be a greater challenge if slower booking periods persist. “At some point, slow-booking months catch up and revenue drops,” he warned.
Cruise line performance has varied, with some companies reporting steady growth while others experience slight declines. Cox noted that KHM’s bookings with Royal Caribbean International were slightly up, whereas Carnival Cruise Line saw a minor decline. However, he remains optimistic that cold winter weather in many regions may still trigger a surge in bookings as travelers seek warmer destinations.
Nexion President Jackie Friedman observed that while this Wave season started slower than expected, recent weeks have shown an increase in bookings. “This year has been less predictable, with a slower-than-normal start,” she noted. “But we’ve seen an uptick over the past couple of weeks, particularly in the premium, luxury, and river cruise segments.”
Aside from pricing, external factors such as economic conditions and global events may also be affecting demand. Sharpe mentioned that issues like the California wildfires and shifts in the political landscape could be playing a role. Friedman added that Nexion is closely monitoring the impact of trade disputes and global economic changes on travel decisions.
Despite these concerns, Royal Caribbean Group remains optimistic. The company reported record-breaking booking activity in January, with CEO Jason Liberty noting that demand has been exceptionally strong. He attributed this trend to stable labor markets, rising wages, and a growing emphasis on travel. “American households are wealthier than ever, with continued wage growth and low unemployment driving strong consumer spending,” Liberty said.
Royal Caribbean’s newest ships, the Icon of the Seas and Utopia of the Seas, have exceeded performance expectations, with high demand in the Caribbean and Alaska. CFO Naftali Holtz confirmed that Alaska bookings continue to surpass projections.
Industry analysts have echoed the sentiment that Wave season pricing remains robust. Patrick Scholes of Truist Securities highlighted that interviews with industry executives and booking data suggest that 2025 ticket prices are outperforming expectations. Similarly, Cleveland Research Co. found that travel advisors report 2025 pricing running about 5% higher than 2024 levels, with overall cruise bookings continuing to outperform other travel sectors.
While 2025 is shaping up to be another record-breaking year for cruise lines, attention is beginning to shift to 2026. With the industry benefiting from strong pre-sales, the challenge will be maintaining momentum in the long run. As Cox pointed out, “We have had a long, cold winter so far, so I will be curious to see if we get a bump because people are tired of the cold.”
In summary, the 2025 Wave season may lack the urgency of previous years due to high pre-bookings and elevated prices, but industry leaders and analysts remain confident that demand for cruising remains strong. The key question is whether this trend will extend into 2026 or if a slowdown in new bookings will eventually impact overall revenue.
