The landscape of transatlantic air travel is shifting as low-cost carriers reduce their presence while network airlines continue to expand. In the years immediately following the pandemic, independent transatlantic airlines saw opportunities for growth, catering to leisure travelers seeking affordable options. However, that trend is now reversing as these discount airlines scale back their routes amid heightened competition and financial challenges.
Norwegian carrier Norse Atlantic Airways and Iceland’s Play Airlines are both reducing their U.S. capacities in an effort to curb financial losses. Play Airlines CEO Einar Orn Olafsson has acknowledged the intense competition in the transatlantic market, surpassing even pre-pandemic levels. This has led Play to cut its U.S. presence significantly, including the suspension of flights from Reykjavik to Baltimore. Now, the airline only serves Washington Dulles, Boston, and Stewart Airport in New York’s Hudson Valley, with a planned 24.6% reduction in U.S. seat capacity for the third quarter of the year. Similarly, Norse Atlantic is scaling back by 3.6% this summer, discontinuing three routes while adding two new ones.
Meanwhile, German independent airline Condor has also reduced its transatlantic operations, dropping six North American destinations, including Baltimore, Minneapolis, Phoenix, and San Antonio. The reduction followed Lufthansa’s decision to discontinue Condor’s access to European feeder routes via Frankfurt. In response, Condor has adjusted its strategy by adding onward flights from Frankfurt to major European destinations such as Paris, Milan, and Rome. This move is intended to appeal to both leisure and business travelers while compensating for the loss of connecting flights provided by Lufthansa.
While low-cost carriers are scaling back, major network airlines such as United, Air France, and Lufthansa continue to increase their transatlantic presence. Data from Deutsche Bank and Cirium flight schedules indicate that U.S.-Europe capacity will rise by 3.9% in June compared to the previous year. Additionally, second-quarter network airline capacity is expected to be nearly 10% higher than in 2019. This expansion reflects the resilience of full-service carriers, which have managed to leverage their extensive networks, premium seating options, and frequent flyer programs to maintain strong demand.
The post-pandemic airline market has seen a shift in the low-cost, long-haul model. Previous disruptors such as Norwegian Airlines and Wow Air struggled to sustain their transatlantic operations, ultimately exiting the market. Although Play and Norse Atlantic emerged as new challengers, both airlines have had to rethink their strategies. In addition to cutting routes, they are leasing out aircraft to other airlines to reduce excess capacity. Norse Atlantic is leasing four of its 12 planes to India’s IndiGo, with three of those leases taking effect in the second half of the year. Similarly, Play Airlines has reached agreements to lease three of its 10 aircraft to an undisclosed European airline starting this spring.
Industry experts remain skeptical about the long-term viability of discount transatlantic carriers. London-based aviation consultant John Strickland has pointed out that the seasonal nature of transatlantic travel makes profitability a challenge, especially in the winter months when demand drops. He also noted that network airlines, with their premium offerings and loyalty programs, are better positioned to attract customers year-round.
Among the remaining independent leisure-focused airlines, Condor stands out due to its premium cabin options. Unlike ultralow-cost carriers, Condor operates a fleet of Airbus A330neos featuring lie-flat business-class seats and premium economy. The airline has also secured partnerships with Alaska Airlines and JetBlue to provide connections through several U.S. airports. However, Condor still faces the challenge of competing with major legacy airlines that have stronger brand recognition and larger loyalty programs. To remain competitive, Condor heavily relies on pricing advantages, often charging 25% to 50% less than its legacy airline rivals across all cabin classes.
Despite Condor’s efforts to retain a foothold in the transatlantic market, Lufthansa’s own leisure brand, Discover, is expanding. This summer, Discover plans to launch two new U.S.-Germany routes and increase seat capacity by 12.7%. Unlike Condor, Discover benefits from being part of Lufthansa Group, providing it with access to a broader network and integrated resources.
The transatlantic market is entering a new phase where network airlines continue to strengthen their dominance while low-cost competitors struggle to maintain profitability. As airlines adjust their strategies, travelers may find fewer budget-friendly options across the Atlantic, with premium services and traditional carriers taking center stage in the evolving aviation landscape.
