Kenya’s Meteorological Department has forecasted a weak La Niña event that is expected to develop from September to November, persisting into early 2025. According to Met director Dr. David Gikungu, this phenomenon will cause a significant reduction in rainfall during the short October-December rainy season, especially across eastern Kenya. Dr. Gikungu urged authorities to prepare for the possibility of drought, with eastern regions being the most affected due to the weak La Niña conditions.
Rainfall Distribution and Expected Impacts
In a detailed three-month forecast, Dr. Gikungu highlighted that western Kenya is likely to experience near to above-average rainfall despite the overarching dry conditions brought about by La Niña. This region, including counties such as Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, and others, will continue to receive rain from September through December, with cessation expected in the third to fourth week of December. However, the forecast suggests that rainfall distribution will be poor in Turkana and western Samburu, where rains are anticipated to end between late November and early December.
Central Kenya, including areas like Nairobi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, and Kiambu, is predicted to have a poor to fair distribution of rain. The onset is expected between the third and fourth week of October, with rains ceasing by early to mid-December. Similarly, coastal counties such as Mombasa, Kwale, and Kilifi will see rains starting in late October to early November, ending by early December with overall poor distribution.
Eastern and Northern Kenya Face Drought Risk
Eastern and northern parts of the country, notably counties like Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, and Isiolo, are at a heightened risk of drought due to significantly reduced rainfall. These areas are expected to receive minimal rains starting from late October to early November, with the season ending by late November or early December. Southeastern lowlands, including Makueni, Kitui, and Machakos, will experience similarly poor rainfall, potentially pushing these regions into the alert phase of the drought early warning system.
The weak La Niña conditions are expected to cause prolonged dry spells interspersed with occasional isolated storms, which may exacerbate the drought situation, especially in already vulnerable areas. Authorities are advised to maximize agricultural production with the limited rains to mitigate the potential impacts of the dry season.
Temperature Outlook
The temperature forecast indicates that most parts of Kenya will be warmer than average during this period, particularly in central and eastern regions. Only a few areas in the western sector are expected to maintain near-average temperatures. This warming trend could further stress water resources and agricultural productivity, compounding the challenges posed by the depressed rainfall.
Mitigation and Preparedness Measures
Given the predicted weak La Niña, Dr. Gikungu emphasized the importance of proactive measures to manage the expected rainfall deficit. The Met department’s advice includes enhancing water conservation efforts, optimizing agricultural practices to make the most of the limited rains, and preparing for potential drought conditions in the most affected regions.
The forecast for this season has been informed by weather patterns observed in 2020, which appear to mirror the current global climate conditions. However, Dr. Gikungu noted that these historical patterns should serve as a reference rather than a definitive predictor, as weather outcomes can vary despite similar conditions.
With the October-December season crucial for replenishing water sources and supporting agriculture, the weak La Niña’s impact could have far-reaching consequences. Stakeholders are encouraged to closely monitor updates from the Meteorological Department and implement adaptive strategies to minimize the adverse effects of the expected dry spells and isolated storms.
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