Africa, a continent that contributes less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, faces a disproportionate burden of climate change. A recent study warns that it is “highly likely” that Africa will surpass 1.5°C of warming by 2040, bringing severe consequences for agriculture, food security, and livelihoods. Despite its minimal contribution to global emissions, Africa’s vulnerability to climate-related disasters is escalating, with devastating implications for millions who rely on agriculture.
Over the past 30 years, Africa’s average annual temperature has increased at a rate of more than 0.5°C per decade, exceeding global averages. Certain regions, such as Southern Africa, have already experienced a rise of 1.2°C since pre-industrial times. Projections indicate that North, Southern, and West Africa will experience the most intense warming, particularly in semi-arid and arid regions.
Rainfall patterns across Africa are also shifting, with North, Southern, and West Africa seeing declines in annual precipitation, while parts of Central and East Africa experience more frequent and intense rainfall. This unpredictability disrupts farming cycles, leading to both droughts and floods that threaten food production.
Agriculture is the backbone of Africa’s economy, employing over 60% of the population. However, it is also the sector most affected by climate change, contributing approximately 65% of Africa’s greenhouse gas emissions through land use changes, livestock emissions, biomass burning, and nitrogen inputs on managed soils. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and increased frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves are already leading to reduced crop yields and livestock losses.
Maize, a staple crop for millions, is particularly vulnerable. A study found that maize yields have declined in over 89% of harvested maize areas in Central Africa due to climate variability. By 2070, maize-growing regions in Central Africa could shrink by over 33%, severely impacting food security.
In East Africa, droughts have devastated farming communities, with repeated dry spells affecting crop and livestock production. The region has also witnessed significant flooding events, including major floods in 1997, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2024. Southern Africa has similarly seen an increase in both droughts and floods, disrupting agricultural output.
To combat these threats, African countries must adopt urgent adaptation and mitigation strategies. Researchers highlight the need for:
Climate-Resilient Agriculture – Investing in drought-tolerant crops, improving soil fertility, and restoring degraded lands can help mitigate climate risks. Diversifying crop varieties and incorporating indigenous knowledge into farming practices will be essential.
Water Management Strategies – Developing irrigation systems, rainwater harvesting, and improved water storage facilities can reduce dependence on unpredictable rainfall.
Technological Innovations – Enhancing access to climate-smart technologies, precision farming, and early warning systems will help farmers anticipate and respond to climate risks.
Policy and Financial Reforms – Governments must establish supportive policies and financial mechanisms to help farmers transition to climate-resilient practices. Increased investment in research, training, and rural infrastructure will also be critical.
At the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, world leaders established the Loss and Damage Fund to support communities affected by climate change. However, researchers emphasize the importance of ensuring that these funds are distributed transparently and equitably, prioritizing the most vulnerable populations.
The concept of climate justice plays a crucial role in addressing Africa’s climate crisis. The study highlights three key aspects of justice:
Distributive Justice – Ensuring that financial resources, technology, and adaptation support are fairly allocated to those most affected.
Procedural Justice – Encouraging inclusive decision-making, transparency, and participation of local communities in climate policies.
Recognition Justice – Acknowledging and respecting the rights and needs of all stakeholders, particularly marginalized and indigenous communities.
Africa stands at a critical juncture, with climate change threatening its economic and social stability. While global emissions must be reduced, African nations must also strengthen their adaptation efforts to protect livelihoods and ensure food security. The international community must step up financial and technological support, acknowledging Africa’s limited role in causing climate change yet its outsized exposure to its consequences.
By implementing sustainable agricultural practices, investing in climate resilience, and ensuring equitable access to resources, Africa can navigate the challenges ahead and build a more climate-secure future.
