The global chocolate industry is facing an existential crisis as climate change continues to wreak havoc on cacao production. A recent study by Climate Central has highlighted how rising temperatures, fueled primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, are significantly impacting cacao-growing regions in West Africa. This region, responsible for approximately 70% of the world’s cacao supply, has experienced extreme weather patterns that threaten the future of chocolate production.
Cacao trees thrive in tropical conditions, but excessive heat above 32°C (89.6°F) can reduce both the quality and quantity of yields. Researchers found that over the last decade, human-induced climate change has contributed to at least three additional weeks of extreme heat in Ivory Coast and Ghana during the prime growing season. This trend was even more severe in 2023, the hottest year on record, where temperatures exceeded 32°C on at least 42 days across two-thirds of the analyzed areas.
Farmers in Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria are struggling to cope with the impacts of climate change, including heat stress, erratic rainfall, and disease outbreaks. A decline in cacao production has driven cocoa prices to record highs, surpassing $10,000 per tonne in early 2024, a significant leap from the historical range of $2,000 to $3,000 per tonne.
While climate change is a primary factor in falling cacao yields, other issues also contribute to the crisis. Mealybug infestations, deforestation, soil degradation, and illegal mining in cacao-producing regions have worsened conditions for farmers. In addition, smuggling and poor governance have exacerbated supply shortages.
Extreme weather events such as excessive rainfall and prolonged droughts have further harmed cacao trees. In 2023, heavy rains caused severe crop losses, while 2024 saw a devastating drought that crippled harvests. Christian Aid, a UK-based charity, has warned that smallholder farmers who form the backbone of the global cacao supply chain are among the most vulnerable to climate-induced disruptions.
With cacao production in decline, chocolate manufacturers have been forced to raise prices. Swiss chocolatier Lindt & Sprüngli has already announced further price hikes in 2024 to offset soaring cocoa costs. If climate change continues to impact cacao-growing regions at this rate, the future of affordable chocolate may be in jeopardy.
Experts warn that without urgent climate action, cacao farming may become unsustainable. Addressing greenhouse gas emissions, improving soil health, and investing in climate-resilient farming techniques are critical to ensuring a stable chocolate supply. Without intervention, consumers could see a future where chocolate becomes a luxury item rather than an everyday treat.
