For the period of March to May 2025, global climate models suggest that sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean will return to near-average levels, signaling a transition to a neutral phase in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The Niño 3.4 and Niño 3 regions, which are critical indicators of ENSO activity, are projected to experience a decline in temperature anomalies, aligning with neutral conditions. Similarly, the Niño 4 region, which represents the western Pacific, is expected to see a reduction in sea surface temperature anomalies, further reinforcing the neutral state. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another important climate driver, is also forecast to remain near its average range, indicating limited influence on global climate patterns during this season. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic are projected to remain above normal, particularly in both the northern and southern tropical Atlantic regions, which could influence precipitation patterns in adjacent land areas.
The persistence of above-normal sea surface temperatures in most of the world’s oceans, except for the near-equatorial eastern Pacific, is expected to contribute to widespread above-average land temperatures. Most land regions, particularly those in Africa, Asia, South America, and North America, are anticipated to experience higher-than-normal temperatures. Specific areas where above-normal temperatures are most likely include the entire African continent and Madagascar, nearly all of Asia, the Caribbean, Central America, and the eastern and southern parts of North America below 45°N. Additionally, Europe and the western Pacific, particularly regions west of 160°E, are expected to see notable warming. Some of the strongest probabilities for significantly higher temperatures are found over the Arabian Peninsula, extending eastward into northern parts of Eastern Asia, as well as the western coastal regions of the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia. A distinct pattern of elevated temperatures is also anticipated in the western Pacific, forming a horseshoe-shaped distribution that extends northeastward and southeastward into both hemispheres. In contrast, some parts of eastern and southeastern Asia, along with select areas in North America, are not expected to show a strong warming trend, remaining closer to their historical temperature ranges.
Rainfall patterns for March to May 2025 are largely consistent with what is typically observed during La Niña years, despite the forecast for neutral ENSO conditions. The enhanced east-to-west sea surface temperature gradient often linked to La Niña is projected to influence precipitation trends globally. Probabilities for below-normal rainfall are expected to be higher along and south of the equator, particularly in regions extending eastward from 150°E toward the western coast of South America. This suggests drier-than-normal conditions across parts of the central Pacific and western South America. On the other hand, an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall is predicted over the central and eastern Maritime Continent, with this trend extending southward into Australia and further southeastward toward 150°W.
Africa’s rainfall outlook remains uncertain, with no clear signal emerging for most regions. However, certain areas, such as the southern Arabian Peninsula and parts of Central Asia, are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions. Meanwhile, a region extending from the southern Arabian Sea into the Bay of Bengal and parts of Southeast Asia is projected to have above-normal rainfall probabilities. In the Americas, a pronounced drying pattern is anticipated over the interior and southern regions of North America, with stronger probabilities for below-normal rainfall in the southwestern United States and into northern Central America. This could contribute to drought concerns in these regions.
As the season progresses, these climate trends may influence various environmental and socio-economic factors, including agricultural productivity, water availability, and disaster preparedness. The potential for above-normal temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns underscores the importance of monitoring regional forecasts for localized impacts.
