The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is set to experience heavy rainfall and rising temperatures, with parts of the region facing potential flooding and heat stress, according to the latest forecast by the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC).
In its weekly forecast, ICPAC predicts more-than-usual rainfall over Rwanda, Burundi, central to northern Tanzania, western Uganda, western Ethiopia, and parts of southwestern South Sudan. The report highlights that moderate rainfall, ranging between 50 and 200 millimeters, is expected across most of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, southwestern Uganda, and some areas in western Ethiopia. Meanwhile, lighter rainfall of less than 50 millimeters is anticipated in southern and western Uganda, most parts of South Sudan, southern and western Kenya, northern Tanzania, and parts of central to southwestern Ethiopia.
ICPAC has issued a warning for possible flooding in Burundi, parts of Rwanda, and some areas in eastern and northern Tanzania. The heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flood incidents, impacting infrastructure, agriculture, and local communities.
In addition to the wet conditions, the region is also expected to experience higher-than-average temperatures. Elevated heat stress is forecast across most of South Sudan, Sudan, eastern Kenya, Tanzania, and southern Somalia. Parts of eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and northwestern Kenya could see temperatures soaring above 32°C, posing risks to human health, livestock, and agriculture.
Most of the GHA will experience moderate to high temperatures ranging between 20°C and 32°C. However, milder temperatures below 20°C are expected in the Ethiopian highlands, central to western Kenya, and parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
These extreme weather patterns pose significant challenges, including increased flood risks, heat-related illnesses, and potential agricultural disruptions. Authorities and local communities are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the impact of both excessive rainfall and extreme heat. ICPAC continues to monitor the situation and urges governments and stakeholders to prepare for possible weather-related emergencies in the coming weeks.
