Public transportation systems around the world are feeling the impact of climate change, and new research is shedding light on how extreme weather conditions influence ridership. A study by Nicole Ngo, an associate professor at the University of Oregon’s School of Planning, Public Policy, and Management, provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between urban mobility and climate change. Her findings highlight how extreme weather events such as prolonged heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and severe cold affect public transit usage, particularly in major U.S. cities.
Ngo’s research, published in Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, analyzed 17 years of transit data from 48 U.S. cities with the highest public transit ridership. Her findings confirm that ridership decreases during periods of extreme weather, with bus ridership being the most affected. While train commuters tend to continue their daily routines, bus passengers, who often use public transit for various purposes beyond work commutes, are more likely to skip trips when temperatures become unbearable or during heavy precipitation.
Her study found that extreme heat and cold had a more significant impact on bus ridership than trains, which may be due to the different nature of trips taken via these modes of transportation. On scorching hot days, commuters may still travel to work but avoid leisure activities that require waiting at exposed bus stops. Similarly, extreme cold weather discourages public transit use, particularly in lower-income areas where individuals may lack sufficient protective clothing or heated shelters.
Another trend identified in the research is the growing preference for alternative transportation options during extreme weather. The rise of ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft, as well as shared bikes and e-scooters, has provided commuters with more convenient and flexible travel options. This shift has been particularly noticeable from 2016 to 2019, when extreme heat increasingly impacted bus ridership. When faced with long wait times at bus stops in sweltering conditions, many riders may choose the comfort of an air-conditioned vehicle, despite the additional cost.
Interestingly, the study also found that the impact of extreme cold on public transit ridership has declined over time. This could be attributed to fewer instances of prolonged cold spells, a consequence of shifting climate patterns. However, heavy precipitation remains a consistent deterrent for both bus and rail travel, suggesting that cities must focus on improving infrastructure to accommodate changing weather conditions.
Ngo’s findings indicate that extreme weather does not affect all communities equally. Lower-income populations tend to experience a more pronounced decline in ridership on extremely cold days, possibly due to a lack of adequate winter clothing or transportation alternatives. Similarly, cities with higher populations are more sensitive to precipitation, likely because public transit systems in densely populated areas are already operating at capacity, and delays caused by heavy rain or snow further disrupt schedules.
Recognizing these disparities, Ngo emphasizes the need for city planners and transit agencies to implement targeted solutions that account for local climate challenges and economic conditions.
To counteract the impact of extreme weather on public transportation, cities must prioritize infrastructure improvements that enhance rider comfort and accessibility. Some potential solutions include:
Expanding Bus Shelters – Providing shaded and weather-resistant bus stops can help mitigate the discomfort caused by heat and rain, encouraging more people to use public transit. In colder regions, heated shelters or enclosed waiting areas could be beneficial.
Increasing Service Frequency – Shorter wait times at transit stops can reduce passenger exposure to extreme weather conditions. Investing in additional buses and trains during peak weather events can help maintain ridership levels.
Upgrading Infrastructure – Extreme heat can cause train tracks to expand and overhead electrical wires to malfunction. Investing in heat-resistant materials and improved rail technology can prevent disruptions to service.
Enhancing Micromobility Integration Cities can promote bike-sharing and e-scooter programs as viable alternatives to traditional public transit, particularly for short-distance travel. Ensuring that these services are accessible and affordable can provide commuters with more reliable options.
Climate-Adaptive Urban Planning In areas prone to heavy rainfall, improving drainage systems and designing weatherproof transit stations can help prevent flooding and minimize service disruptions.
While there is no one-size-fits-all solution, Ngo’s study provides valuable insights that can help cities develop climate-resilient transportation networks. As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, transit agencies must adopt proactive strategies to ensure that public transportation remains a viable and accessible option for all.
Investing in infrastructure, enhancing service reliability, and addressing socioeconomic disparities will be critical in maintaining and even increasing transit ridership in the face of climate change. By implementing thoughtful, data-driven solutions, cities can not only adapt to changing weather patterns but also create more sustainable and inclusive transportation systems for the future.
