The transition to renewable energy is accelerating worldwide, but ensuring its reliability requires integrating weather and climate insights into energy planning. A new report highlights how climate-informed energy strategies are essential to balancing electricity demand and supply while increasing resilience in the face of changing weather patterns.
Climate variability significantly impacts renewable energy generation. The report, produced by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), emphasizes the importance of diversified energy solutions to meet global sustainability targets. It highlights how changes in climate phenomena, such as shifts between La Niña and El Niño, influence critical energy indicators like wind speeds, solar radiation, and hydropower availability. These fluctuations, in turn, affect the reliability of electricity production and demand patterns.
One of the key takeaways from the report is the necessity of seasonal forecasting in energy planning. Predicting supply and demand fluctuations enables grid operators and policymakers to anticipate potential shortages and mitigate risks. For example, regions experiencing reduced wind speeds may compensate with increased solar energy output, or vice versa. Additionally, insights from climate forecasting can help energy producers prepare for extreme weather events, minimizing disruptions and enhancing overall energy security.
The year 2023 was particularly notable for global renewable energy trends, as it marked a transition from La Niña to El Niño and was recorded as the warmest year on record at the time. This shift had significant consequences for wind, solar, and hydropower generation across different regions. In South America, drier and warmer El Niño conditions led to a 3.9% increase in solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity, contributing to an estimated 3.5 terawatt-hours of additional electricity. Similarly, East Asia saw a 4.1% increase in wind power capacity, generating an estimated 45 terawatt-hours. These changes underscore the need for climate-informed planning to ensure that energy systems can adapt to shifting environmental conditions.
The report also outlines policy recommendations for achieving global renewable energy targets by 2030. Diversifying energy sources including wind, solar, hydropower, and emerging technologies such as geothermal and battery storage can mitigate the impact of climate variability. Regional cooperation in energy trading and grid interconnection can further stabilize supply and demand, particularly in areas prone to seasonal energy fluctuations. Moreover, improved data collection and sharing are critical for refining climate models and enhancing energy forecasting capabilities.
Despite Africa’s vast renewable energy potential, the continent accounts for only 2% of global installed capacity. The report suggests that integrating climate insights into energy planning can accelerate the development of sustainable infrastructure, supporting industrialization and economic growth. By leveraging solar, wind, and hydro resources with climate-informed strategies, African nations can improve energy access while contributing to global emissions reduction efforts.
Meeting the 1.5°C climate target requires substantial expansion in renewable energy capacity. By 2030, wind power is projected to reach 3,000 gigawatts, solar energy 5,400 gigawatts, and hydropower 1,500 gigawatts. By 2050, these figures are expected to grow to 8,000 gigawatts, 18,000 gigawatts, and 2,500 gigawatts, respectively. These projections align with the goals set during COP28, emphasizing the need to triple renewable energy capacity to meet climate commitments.
Renewable energy costs have also declined significantly over the past decade, making clean power more accessible. Between 2010 and 2023, the cost of solar energy dropped by approximately 90%, while wind energy costs decreased by 68%. These reductions, coupled with advancements in energy storage and grid management, reinforce the feasibility of a climate-resilient energy transition.
The findings in the report highlight the crucial role of climate insights in ensuring the reliability of renewable energy systems. By integrating seasonal forecasts, diversifying energy sources, and fostering international collaboration, the world can achieve a more stable and sustainable energy future.
