Climate scientists at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)’s Climate Predictions and Application Centre (ICPAC) have cautioned Kenyans to brace for a heat wave in the coming days. The climate experts, in their forecast report released on Friday, February 21, disclosed that the above-average temperatures were also expected to affect the larger Eastern African region. The scientists revealed that elevated heat stress was expected in several areas, including Eastern Kenya, South Sudan, Eastern Tanzania, Southern Sudan, and Southern Somalia.
Individuals residing in the aforementioned regions were cautioned that the harsh conditions could significantly impact both human health and agriculture. While southeastern Sudan was predicted to experience temperatures exceeding 32°C, temperatures of between 20-32°C were projected in the greater Horn of Africa, affecting some parts of Kenya. However, mild temperature conditions of less than 20°C were expected over parts of Northern Sudan, the Ethiopian highlands, and Central and Western Kenya.
Experts highlighted that the increased temperatures could worsen existing drought conditions and disrupt local economies dependent on farming and livestock. Additionally, higher temperatures pose a health risk, particularly for vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, and individuals with pre-existing medical conditions. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat could lead to dehydration, heat exhaustion, and other related complications.
“Warmer than usual temperatures over most parts of the GHA, while cooler than usual temperatures are expected over parts of coastal regions of Somalia and Kenya,” the specialised institution of IGAD said in its statement. Meanwhile, light rainfall, under 50 millimetres, was also expected over parts of southern and central Tanzania, a few regions in coastal Kenya, and southwestern South Sudan. However, the rainfall levels were not expected to be significant enough to offset the high temperatures in most affected areas.
The climate experts noted that the region’s vulnerability to climate change was becoming more apparent and that the extreme conditions could have a lasting impact on both ecosystems and local populations. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and prolonged dry spells have already been linked to declining crop yields, water shortages, and food insecurity in many East African countries. As a result, governments and humanitarian organizations are being urged to implement adaptive measures to mitigate the effects of climate variability.
The latest report comes on the back of the Kenya Meteorological Department’s advisory that only sunny, dry, and hot weather conditions were expected to prevail over most parts of the country in the coming week. In its weekly weather forecast released on Friday, February 21, the department noted that maximum temperatures of more than 30°C were predicted over most parts of the country except for the Highlands east of the Rift Valley. Similarly, Kenya Met predicted strong southeasterly winds of more than 25 knots or 12.9 metres per second in parts of northwestern and northeastern Kenya.
Given the impending heat wave, health experts are advising people in affected areas to stay hydrated, limit outdoor activities during peak hours, and take necessary precautions to prevent heat-related illnesses. Farmers and pastoralists are also being urged to implement sustainable water management practices to safeguard their livestock and crops. With climate change continuing to impact weather patterns across the region, experts emphasize the importance of long-term solutions, including afforestation, improved irrigation techniques, and increased investment in climate-resilient infrastructure.
