Kenya’s long rains season, which typically starts in March, is set to begin earlier than anticipated in some parts of the country, according to the Kenya Meteorological Department. The early onset is attributed to the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a system of rain-bearing clouds that moves across tropical oceans, influencing rainfall patterns.
Dr. David Gikungu, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Service, explained that the MJO is expected to enter phase two by the second week of March, triggering earlier-than-expected rainfall in some regions. “The March 2025 rainfall forecast is based on the regression of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients,” he noted.
The forecast indicates that near to above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Central and Southern Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley including Nairobi County the Southeastern lowlands, and some areas in the Northeast and Northwest. Meanwhile, the Coast, most of the Northeast, and parts of the Northwestern region may receive near to below-average rainfall.
According to the forecast, rainfall will begin in the second or third week of March in counties such as Kisumu, Nakuru, Nyeri, Nairobi, and Meru. North Eastern counties like Mandera, Wajir, and Marsabit will likely experience occasional showers in March, with full onset expected in early April. Coastal counties such as Mombasa, Kilifi, and Lamu may see rain from late March to mid-April.
The early rains come with potential hazards, including flash floods in urban centers and along rivers, particularly in Nairobi, the Lake Victoria Basin, and parts of the Rift Valley. The health sector is being urged to prepare for a rise in vector-borne diseases due to stagnant water and warmer temperatures.
Motorists are advised to exercise caution on wet and slippery roads, while residents are warned against walking, driving, or cycling in moving waters to avoid accidents. The government is calling for preparedness measures to mitigate the potential effects of the season’s rains.
