As winter transitions into spring, meteorologists are forecasting above-average temperatures across most of the world’s land areas. This shift comes as the weak La Niña weather pattern, which emerged in December, begins to fade. While a return to neutral conditions is anticipated in the coming months, the lingering effects of La Niña, combined with human-driven climate change, are contributing to increasingly warm temperatures globally.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), nearly all major land regions will experience warmer-than-normal conditions. Additionally, ocean temperatures are expected to remain elevated across most of the world’s seas, except for the near-equatorial eastern Pacific. This warming trend is not isolated to any single region but is expected to impact continents worldwide, with North America, Europe, and parts of Asia experiencing some of the most significant temperature anomalies.
In the United States, the effects of these changing weather patterns will be particularly pronounced in the southern and eastern regions. States like Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas are forecast to see temperatures more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit above their historical spring averages, according to meteorologists at AccuWeather. This warming is expected to intensify drought conditions in the Southwest, exacerbating the challenges already faced by farmers, ranchers, and water resource managers.
Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest will experience cooler temperatures, driven by persistent storm systems that will continue to bring snow and rain to the region. The transition from winter to spring will also bring increased risks of severe weather events in the central United States, including tornadoes and strong thunderstorms. Late-season snowfall may still impact areas in the Northeast and Midwest, prolonging winter-like conditions even as other parts of the country heat up.
La Niña is a natural climate phenomenon that results in cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which alternates between La Niña, El Niño, and neutral phases. La Niña typically brings cooler winters to the northern United States and warmer, drier conditions to the southern regions. It can also contribute to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons. However, its weakening signals a shift toward neutral conditions, which could lead to more stable weather patterns in the months ahead.
Despite La Niña’s cooling influence, global temperatures have remained exceptionally high. Scientists point to human-caused climate change as a major factor in the ongoing warming trend. January was recorded as the warmest January in history, and 2024 is on track to be one of the hottest years ever recorded. Climate experts warn that even as natural climate cycles fluctuate, the overarching trend of global warming continues to drive extreme weather events, heatwaves, and shifts in precipitation patterns.
Looking ahead, forecasts indicate a 60 percent chance of a return to neutral ENSO conditions between March and May, with that probability increasing to 70 percent between April and June, according to the WMO. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests that the likelihood may be even higher. However, while a neutral ENSO phase may bring some temporary stabilization, it is unlikely to reverse the long-term warming trend that has been exacerbated by greenhouse gas emissions.
As the world prepares for another unusually warm spring and summer, governments, businesses, and communities must continue adapting to a changing climate. The combination of natural climate variability and human-induced warming highlights the urgency of climate action, as extreme heat, drought, and severe storms become more frequent and intense across the globe.
