The climate outlook for March 2025 indicates a shift from the intense winter conditions that gripped much of the northern United States in February. With temperatures in the Northern Rockies averaging more than 10°F below normal and Arctic blasts extending into the eastern parts of the country, February was particularly harsh. The winter of 2024-2025 is expected to be one of the coldest in the past decade, with below-normal temperatures recorded across much of the central and eastern United States. As March arrives, meteorologists and climate experts are closely monitoring the potential for lingering cold, as well as the impact of ongoing drought conditions affecting large portions of the nation.
According to the latest forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), March 2025 is likely to bring a shift toward warmer-than-average temperatures in many parts of the country. The temperature outlook suggests well above average conditions across the South and East, except in the Northeast, where there is no clear trend. Meanwhile, the western United States and parts of central and southern Alaska are expected to experience below-average temperatures. While these patterns align with longer-term climate trends, they also reflect the influence of ongoing atmospheric conditions, including a weak La Niña, which has played a role in shaping this winter’s weather.
Precipitation forecasts for March suggest a continuation of patterns observed in previous months. Above-average precipitation is expected in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and around the Great Lakes, as well as in the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. Conversely, below-normal precipitation is projected for the Southwest and Southern Plains, with drier conditions also possible along parts of the Gulf Coast and Florida. These precipitation patterns resemble those commonly associated with La Niña, which typically brings wetter conditions to the northern regions of the U.S. and drier conditions to the South.
The variability in temperature and precipitation patterns across different regions will have significant implications, particularly for drought conditions. As of late February, nearly 41.5% of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing some level of drought, with about 7% of the country classified in the most severe categories of extreme or exceptional drought. Drought conditions worsened in the Southwest and Southern Plains but showed improvement in the Northern Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions. The overall changes have been relatively modest, but the trend of increasing dryness in parts of the South remains a concern.
Looking ahead, the drought outlook for March suggests that conditions may persist or worsen in certain areas, particularly in the High Plains and along the East Coast. However, the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest and Northeast could see improvements due to increased precipitation. The persistence of dry conditions in Texas, central Florida, and portions of the Southwest highlights the ongoing challenges related to water resources, agriculture, and wildfire risks. The month of March will be crucial in determining whether the nation transitions into a wetter spring season or continues to face lingering dryness and unpredictable temperature swings.
