As the last month of meteorological winter unfolds, many are wondering whether winter’s chill will make a strong return or if the milder conditions observed in many regions will persist. According to the latest climate outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the answer is not straightforward. Several atmospheric oscillations, which drive temperature and precipitation patterns, are expected to shift throughout February, making conditions highly variable across different parts of the country.
One of the most notable trends in February’s forecast is the likelihood of above-average temperatures in the southern United States. Cities across Texas, Florida, and parts of the Southeast may continue to experience unseasonably warm temperatures, with daytime highs reaching into the 70s and even 80s in some locations. This follows a January that set numerous warmth records across the region, raising questions about whether winter will truly return before spring officially begins on March 1.
While some brief cool-downs may occur, there is no indication of extended cold spells in the southern states. The jet stream is expected to remain positioned in a way that limits the influx of Arctic air into these areas, making it unlikely that winter’s bite will return with full force.
In contrast, parts of the northern U.S., particularly near the Canadian border and in the Pacific Northwest, are more likely to see stretches of below-average temperatures. This is due to periodic Arctic air intrusions, which could bring snowfall to cities such as Seattle, Minneapolis, and Chicago. While winter storms have been sparse so far, February could still deliver snowfall to these regions, especially when cold air coincides with moisture from passing storm systems.
The interior Northeast and New England may also see plowable snowfall, particularly in late February when cold air is more likely to interact with incoming moisture. However, coastal cities along the Interstate 95 corridor, including New York and Washington, D.C., may continue to see limited snowfall due to fluctuating temperature patterns.
Precipitation patterns are also expected to vary significantly by region. According to NOAA’s projections:
- The Pacific Northwest and Midwest are forecasted to see above-average precipitation, increasing the likelihood of snow in higher elevations.
- The Southeast and Texas are expected to remain drier than normal, continuing the trend of limited rainfall in those regions.
- The Great Lakes region may experience persistent snowfall, with lake-effect snow events becoming more pronounced if cold air remains in place.
While extreme winter storms appear unlikely for most areas, February is historically known for producing notable weather events. Therefore, meteorologists will continue monitoring potential storm systems that could impact heavily populated areas.
Looking at the broader picture, if winter were to end after February, the season would be remembered as relatively average in terms of temperature and precipitation. However, there are key regional variations. Some locations, such as Phoenix and parts of California, are on track to record their warmest winters, while others in the Mid-Atlantic are experiencing one of their colder seasons in recent years.
As February progresses, it will be a defining month in determining how this winter is remembered. A warmer-than-average February would reinforce recent trends of milder winters, while a colder month could shift the seasonal narrative toward a more traditional winter experience.
Spring officially begins on March 1, but until then, winter still has a few weeks left to leave its mark.
