The year 2025 has kicked off with startling weather patterns. Southern California faced 100-mph winds, fueling wildfires of unprecedented intensity, while winter storms brought heavy snow to the Mid-Atlantic and the South. Meanwhile, scientists reported that 2024 was the hottest year ever recorded, largely due to human-induced climate change.
Yet, as extreme as these events seem, not all bizarre weather is directly linked to climate change. It’s a nuanced topic. While modern science has made it possible to identify climate change’s fingerprints on events like hurricanes and heat waves, some weather anomalies can still arise from natural variability.
Weather vs. Climate: A Quick Refresher
To grasp the connection or lack thereof between climate change and weather, it helps to understand the difference between the two. Climate is the average of weather conditions over a period, usually 30 years, while weather is what happens daily. As climate scientist Danielle Touma explains, climate is like your wardrobe, and weather is the outfit you choose each day.
Day-to-day fluctuations, such as an unusually warm winter day, are part of natural weather variability. These anomalies may not significantly alter long-term climate trends but do contribute to the perception of “weird” weather.
Climate Change’s Role in Shaping Weather
Since the mid-1800s, human activity particularly the burning of fossil fuels has raised Earth’s temperature by about 1.3 degrees Celsius. This warming subtly influences nearly all weather patterns. For instance, there are now fewer freezing days in states like Michigan and Ohio, while heat waves in the U.S. have more than tripled since the 1960s.
But the interplay between climate and weather is complex. As Deepti Singh of Washington State University notes, “Everything we’re experiencing is occurring in a different environment.” The slow, steady rise in global temperatures reshapes atmospheric and oceanic patterns, sometimes resulting in rare or unprecedented events, such as the Pacific Northwest’s deadly heat wave in 2021.
The Science of Attribution
In recent years, researchers have developed techniques to pinpoint the role of climate change in specific weather events. Using advanced climate models, scientists can simulate scenarios with and without human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. By comparing these models, they can estimate the influence of climate change on particular events.
For instance, Hurricane Helene’s devastating rainfall was found to be 10% more intense due to climate change, and such storms are 40% more likely to occur now.
The Takeaway
While human-caused climate change shapes many weather extremes, it’s not the culprit for every unusual pattern. Some anomalies still stem from natural variability. However, the overarching reality is clear: the environment in which all weather unfolds is warming, making it imperative to understand and address these changes.
As we navigate an increasingly unpredictable climate, it’s crucial to separate the natural from the anthropogenic and to take meaningful steps toward sustainability for the future.
