Why Raila Odinga Faces an Uphill Battle for the African Union Commission Chair

Ahmed Hashi, a seasoned Diplomatic Affairs Analyst, has projected a challenging path for Raila Odinga, Kenya’s opposition leader, in his quest to become the next African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson. Despite Odinga’s endorsement by the East African Community (EAC) states, Hashi argues that Odinga’s chances of winning are slim, especially with Djibouti’s candidate Mahmoud Youssouf emerging as a strong favorite.

During a recent interview on “Daybreak,” Hashi, who has a background as a spokesperson for Kenya’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, cited several factors that could undermine Odinga’s bid. He expressed concerns about potential foreign influence, particularly from France, which could rally Francophone countries to support Youssouf, giving the Djibouti candidate a substantial advantage in the February 2025 elections in Addis Ababa.

Hashi emphasized that the African Union (AU) is significantly divided along linguistic and geopolitical lines, with the Francophone bloc exerting substantial influence, partly due to France’s strategic interests on the continent. He referenced the 2017 AUC elections as a precedent, when Kenya’s candidate, Amina Mohamed, lost to Chad’s Moussa Faki after seven rounds of voting. That election saw a late shift in support from Uganda, Djibouti, and Burundi, which ultimately tipped the balance against Kenya.

Hashi suggests that a similar scenario could unfold in 2025, where French influence could again sway votes against Odinga. “The people in charge of these nations have fundamental influence from the metropole. The AU is divided based on these fundamental tectonic plates, and one of the biggest influencers of the AU is France,” Hashi explained. He recalled the French government’s decisive role in the 2017 election, stating, “We even had the support of Djibouti, one of the people who stabbed us in the back in those elections.”

Beyond external influences, Hashi also questioned the appropriateness of Odinga’s candidacy at this time in his career. With Odinga approaching his 80s, Hashi raised doubts about whether he possesses the necessary vigor to tackle the continent’s pressing issues, especially when 80 percent of Africa’s population is under 25. “I think this is the wrong move for Raila. Whether it serves the interests of the continent for us to have a man nearing his 80s… is something that must be considered,” he remarked.

Despite these challenges, Odinga has received strong backing from President William Ruto, who praised him as a visionary Pan-African leader and a veteran mobilizer for positive change. Ruto expressed confidence in Odinga’s ability to lead Africa toward prosperity and unity, describing him as “a professional and technocrat” who could help make Africa proud on the global stage.

Odinga faces a tough competition from three other candidates: Mahmoud Youssouf of Djibouti, Anil Gayan of Mauritius, and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar. The election is expected to be fiercely contested, with the winner required to secure at least 66 percent of the votes from AU member states, which translates to a minimum of 32 countries.

Hashi’s analysis highlights the complexities of AU politics and the potential obstacles that Odinga faces in his quest for the top job. With foreign interests, regional alliances, and internal continental dynamics at play, the race for the AUC chair is poised to be an intriguing one. The outcome could reflect the evolving power structures and diplomatic maneuverings that continue to shape Africa’s political landscape.

As the election date approaches, all eyes will be on Addis Ababa to see whether Odinga can overcome these odds or if Djibouti’s Mahmoud Youssouf will capitalize on the perceived advantages to clinch the seat. Regardless, this election will likely serve as a critical moment for the future of the African Union and its leadership trajectory.