Somalia is facing a renewed threat from the Al-Qaeda-linked jihadist group Al-Shabaab, as the militants regain ground in key regions and launch high-profile attacks, including an attempted assassination of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
The extremist group, which was on the defensive in 2022 and 2023 due to military offensives by Somali forces and international allies, is now reclaiming lost territory. Analysts warn that this resurgence coincides with waning military support from the United States and the African Union, creating a security vacuum that Al-Shabaab is exploiting.
Recent reports indicate that the group has made significant advances in Middle and Lower Shabelle, two critical coastal regions near the capital, Mogadishu. These areas are vital for trade and transportation, making them strategic targets for the militants. Their growing influence in these regions suggests they are regrouping and strengthening their hold in southern Somalia.
The most alarming incident occurred on March 18, when a roadside bomb narrowly missed President Mohamud’s convoy. This brazen attack highlights the group’s ability to strike even at the highest levels of government. Security forces managed to thwart the assassination attempt, but it underscores the persistent danger Al-Shabaab poses, even in the capital.
On Wednesday, Somali officials confirmed that the group had taken control of the center of Masaajid Cali Gaduud, a key town in Middle Shabelle. This development is part of a broader pattern of territorial gains, which raises concerns that the Somali government may struggle to maintain control without sustained international military and financial assistance.
The resurgence of Al-Shabaab comes as African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) forces are gradually withdrawing. The phased drawdown, coupled with uncertainty over continued U.S. support, has left gaps in Somalia’s security strategy. Experts warn that without a clear plan to counter the insurgents, Somalia risks losing the hard-won gains of the past two years.
As Al-Shabaab regroups, Somali authorities and their international allies face a crucial test in preventing the jihadists from regaining full operational strength. A coordinated response will be essential to contain the threat and prevent Somalia from sliding back into prolonged instability.
