Canada is set to vote Monday in a highly charged election, following a campaign upended by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade threats. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took over the Liberal Party leadership from Justin Trudeau in March, is favored to win, marking a dramatic turnaround in Canada’s political landscape.
Just months ago, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by more than 20 points, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre looking poised for victory. However, Trump’s chaotic trade war rhetoric — including alarming comments about absorbing Canada into the U.S. — galvanized Canadian voters. Outraged citizens booed the U.S. anthem at sporting events and canceled American travel plans, creating a wave of nationalism that Carney effectively tapped into.
A former head of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, Carney positioned himself as the experienced hand needed to defend Canada against Trump’s unpredictable policies. “Unlike Pierre Poilievre, I’ve managed budgets before. I’ve managed economies before. I’ve managed crises before,” Carney emphasized on Friday, drawing a clear contrast with his opponent.
Poilievre, despite two decades in Parliament, struggled to keep the focus on domestic issues like rising living costs and economic challenges. While he also criticized Trump’s actions, he blamed the Liberals for weakening Canada’s economy and leaving it vulnerable to U.S. protectionism. Analysts believe Poilievre’s combative style may have alienated moderate voters, particularly women, who could have otherwise swung Conservative.
Although polls show the Liberals holding a slight lead 42 percent to the Conservatives’ 38 percent the race has tightened in the final days. A record 7.3 million Canadians cast early ballots, signaling strong voter engagement. Key provinces like Ontario and Quebec will be crucial, with weaker support for the New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois potentially boosting Liberal prospects.
“This election feels more important because of everything happening in the U.S.,” said Montreal voter Nathalie Tremblay, reflecting widespread anxiety among Canadians.
Political experts describe the campaign as “strange” and unpredictable, shaped more by external pressures than domestic policy debates. The final result will likely be known just hours after polls close Monday night, in what could be a defining moment for Canada’s future direction.
