Russian President Vladimir Putin has hinted at the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine but has attached conditions that make it highly unlikely to materialize. Speaking ahead of talks with U.S. envoys in Moscow, Putin acknowledged that Russia was open to halting hostilities but insisted that it must lead to “long-term peace” and address what he calls the “root causes” of the war.
However, Putin’s definition of these root causes is deeply contentious. His long-standing demands include Ukraine’s “demilitarization” and an end to Western military support, both of which are unacceptable to Kyiv and its allies. Ukraine has enshrined its aspirations to join NATO and the European Union in its constitution something Putin continues to dismiss, questioning Ukraine’s legitimacy as a sovereign state.
Putin’s latest statements suggest he is negotiating from a position of strength. Fresh from a visit to the Russian border region of Kursk, where Russian forces have been making gains, Putin appears unwilling to give up his military advantage. He warned that a 30-day ceasefire would only benefit Ukraine by allowing its forces to regroup and rearm, asking rhetorically, “What are our guarantees that nothing like that will be allowed to happen?”
Russia’s Defense Ministry recently announced that its forces had taken full control of Sudzha, the largest city recaptured by Ukraine. Putin claims Ukrainian forces are now left with only a small wedge of territory and sees no reason to stop now. He stated bluntly that if Ukraine’s forces were fully encircled, they would face only two choices: “to surrender or die.”
Despite interest from 15 Western countries in sending peacekeeping troops, no mechanism has been proposed to ensure a ceasefire holds. Putin remains skeptical of any arrangement that does not fully serve Russia’s interests. While he is meeting U.S. envoys, his real focus is on U.S. President Donald Trump. “Maybe we need to have a phone call with President Trump and discuss this,” he suggested.
Ultimately, Putin’s conditions make a ceasefire nearly impossible. Instead, he appears to be buying time while maintaining military pressure, ensuring that any negotiations happen on his terms.
