This week marks a pivotal moment in the Ukraine conflict, as two sets of high-stakes diplomatic talks unfold in Paris and Riyadh. The absence of Ukraine from both discussions raises significant concerns over the future of peace efforts and the sovereignty of the war-torn nation.
In Paris, European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, are scrambling to respond to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Starmer’s approach focuses on bridging the gap between European nations and Trump’s administration, suggesting that UK troops could be deployed to help secure a deal. The UK has long maintained that the terms of any peace settlement should be determined by Ukraine. However, with the U.S. signaling a potential shift towards more compromise, including an unrealistic return to 2014 borders, the international consensus is showing signs of fracture. In this context, Starmer hopes European allies will contribute military forces to ensure Russia cannot re-launch its aggression in the future. Meanwhile, Labour has promised to boost defense spending, though details on implementation remain unclear.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany finds himself navigating a politically charged situation in Paris, with the German electorate wary of militarization and heavy defense expenditures. Despite internal tensions over spending and military involvement, Berlin remains committed to Ukraine, knowing that any deal compromising Ukrainian sovereignty would have disastrous consequences for Europe’s security.
Poland, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, is cautious about sending troops to enforce any ceasefire, but it remains vocal about the need to prevent a Russian victory, arguing that a win for Russia would jeopardize European security for years to come.
Meanwhile, the U.S. delegation, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will meet Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Riyadh. This meeting holds particular significance as Russia has made it clear that recognition of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories and lifting sanctions are key demands for any peace deal. Moscow is also focused on talks with the U.S., considering it the only power capable of reaching a meaningful compromise. However, concerns over Trump’s stance on Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including his suggestion of a return to pre-2014 borders, have raised alarms in Europe, where leaders worry about being sidelined.
Ukraine has been excluded from these talks, with President Volodymyr Zelensky asserting that any peace deal negotiated without Ukraine’s participation would be unacceptable. Ukrainians, who have sacrificed thousands of lives defending their homeland, are deeply skeptical of past agreements that only paved the way for further Russian aggression. As the world watches, Ukraine insists on having full agency over its future and the terms of peace, fearing that any deal struck over its head could lead to a third wave of war.
