South Sudan is once again on the brink of conflict, with recent clashes between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar raising fears of a renewed civil war. The arrest of Machar last week has been viewed by many as a potential spark for a violent escalation, reminiscent of the 2013-2018 civil war that claimed 400,000 lives.
The situation in South Sudan, however, is more complex than a simple struggle between Kiir and Machar. While the two leaders have long been political rivals, analysts point to a shift in dynamics, with Kiir, 73, increasingly focusing on securing his succession due to declining health. His efforts to sideline Machar politically are evident, with over 20 of Machar’s allies arrested since February, some held without communication. In addition, several governors loyal to Machar have been replaced, violating the 2018 power-sharing agreement that ended the previous civil war.
Many believe Kiir is positioning Benjamin Bol Mel, his former financial advisor, as his chosen successor. This has stoked anger within Kiir’s own party, as Bol Mel is widely disliked. If Kiir were to leave the country for medical treatment, analysts warn that a power vacuum could lead to an immediate coup and escalate tensions further.
The rising conflict has been marked by ethnic violence, especially in Upper Nile State, where the Nuer community’s White Army militia attacked a military base in March. The military responded with airstrikes, killing civilians and displacing tens of thousands.
South Sudan’s already fragile economy has been worsened by a financial crisis, exacerbated by a halt in oil exports from neighboring Sudan. With soldiers unpaid for months, unrest is spreading. The international community has shown limited attention, though efforts by Kenyan leader Raila Odinga to mediate in Juba continue. Meanwhile, the country’s ongoing cholera outbreak adds to the mounting challenges facing the people of South Sudan.
