Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed that NATO extend membership to the parts of Ukraine currently under Kyiv’s control, a move he believes could halt the ongoing “hot phase” of the war. In a recent interview with Sky News, Zelensky outlined this theoretical pathway, stressing that the offer would need to cover all of Ukraine, within its internationally recognized borders, to be legitimate.
The suggestion hinges on a critical caveat: NATO membership for the entirety of Ukraine, even for regions currently occupied by Russia, must precede any such partial integration. According to Zelensky, offering NATO membership solely to unoccupied Ukraine would effectively concede the occupied territories as belonging to Russia, something he firmly rejects. “You can’t give [an] invitation to just one part of a country,” he stated, underscoring that doing so would invalidate Ukraine’s sovereignty over its eastern and southern territories.
Zelensky’s comments highlight a broader concern about the insufficiency of ceasefires without mechanisms to prevent renewed Russian aggression. While many international actors propose temporary halts to hostilities, Zelensky insists that only NATO membership can provide the security guarantees Ukraine requires.
This idea, however, remains largely hypothetical. No formal proposals have emerged from NATO or its member states, and analysts question the feasibility of such a move. Western circles have reportedly discussed a “West German model,” referencing NATO’s integration of West Germany during the Cold War despite the existence of East Germany. However, the parallels are imperfect, and the geopolitical stakes are significantly higher today.
The NATO Dilemma
For NATO, offering membership to Ukraine, even partially, would be fraught with challenges. Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which obligates collective defense in the event of an attack on any member, would instantly complicate the alliance’s position. Accepting Ukraine under current conditions could effectively thrust NATO into direct conflict with Russia—a scenario most member states are eager to avoid.
Moreover, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has shown no indication of moderating his ambitions to fully subjugate Ukraine. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Moscow has persistently pursued territorial and political control over its neighbor. The notion that Putin would tolerate any part of Ukraine joining NATO appears, for now, unrealistic.
On the ground, Russia continues its aggressive campaign. Just this past Thursday, Moscow launched its second mass assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in under two weeks. Putin framed these strikes as retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles. These offensives have underscored the Kremlin’s determination to maintain military pressure as Ukraine braces for another harsh winter.
A Path Forward?
Zelensky has long maintained that the war could end diplomatically, but only under the right conditions. While he has expressed optimism that Ukraine’s allies can help end the conflict within a year, achieving this would require unprecedented resolve and unity among Western nations. The prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine, even partially, remains a long shot.
The incoming U.S. administration adds another layer of complexity. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to resolve the war within “24 hours,” with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance suggesting this would involve Ukraine ceding territory in Donbas and Crimea. Such compromises starkly contrast Zelensky’s vision and would require significant concessions from both Kyiv and Moscow—unlikely given Putin’s current posture.
For now, Zelensky’s proposal stands as a bold theoretical framework for securing peace, but it faces immense hurdles. NATO’s collective hesitations, Putin’s intransigence, and the ongoing violence across Ukraine all signal that the war’s end remains distant. However, the suggestion reignites critical discussions about security, sovereignty, and the role of international alliances in ending one of the 21st century’s most devastating conflicts.
